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World Oil Supply

46

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – September 2017

1H17. This market development suggests that more possibilities being ready for market rebalancing in the

1H18.

Graph 5 - 6: Non-OPEC oil supply in 2016-2018

The main factors for higher growth expectations in 2017, as opposed to last year, are the currently improving

price environment, which is more suitable for the shale producers, the start-up of giant projects such as

Kashagan, the increasing number of active rigs in North America and the proportionally remarkable

investment in upstream projects. Nevertheless, non-OPEC supply is predicted to show mild growth of

0.16 mb/d in 2H17 compared to 1H17. This market development suggests the possibility of more market

rebalancing in 1H18.

Table 5 - 2: Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018*, mb/d

57.71

56.24

56.53

57.60

57.87

57.56

57.53

58.23

58.61

58.54

58.55

59.50

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

2016

2017 (Forecast)

2018 (Forecast)

mb/d

Source: OPEC Secretariat.

2017 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 2018 Growth

%

Americas

21.25 21.93 21.94 22.13 22.47 22.12

0.87 4.07

of which US

14.26 14.94 14.99 15.10 15.34 15.09

0.84 5.88

Europe

3.82 3.94 3.83 3.76 4.05 3.90

0.08 2.13

Asia Pacific

0.41 0.42 0.45 0.46 0.45 0.45

0.04 9.79

Total OECD

25.48 26.30 26.22 26.35 26.97 26.46

0.99 3.87

Other Asia

3.67 3.64 3.64 3.62 3.60 3.63

-0.04 -1.08

Latin America

5.26 5.37 5.35 5.36 5.41 5.37

0.11 2.19

Middle East

1.23 1.20 1.19 1.18 1.16 1.18

-0.05 -3.90

Africa

1.85 1.91 1.92 1.92 1.93 1.92

0.07 3.82

Total DCs

12.00 12.12 12.10 12.07 12.10 12.10

0.10 0.82

FSU

14.01 13.93 14.05 14.00 14.31 14.08

0.06 0.46

of which Russia

11.12 10.98 11.13 11.21 11.39 11.18

0.06 0.56

Other Europe

0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.13

0.00 -2.37

China

3.98 3.90 3.81 3.76 3.76 3.81

-0.17 -4.26

Total "Other regions"

18.12 17.96 17.99 17.89 18.19 18.01

-0.11 -0.60

Total non-OPEC

production

55.59 56.38 56.31 56.32 57.26 56.57

0.98 1.76

Processing gains

2.21 2.23 2.23 2.23 2.23 2.23

0.03 1.32

Total non-OPEC supply

57.80 58.61 58.54 58.55 59.50 58.80

1.00 1.74

Previous estimate

57.77 58.48 58.61 58.75 59.62 58.87

1.10 0.00

Revision

0.03 0.13 -0.07 -0.20 -0.12 -0.06

-0.10 1.74

Note: * 2018 = Forecast.

Source: OPEC Secretariat.

Change 2018/17