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World Oil Supply

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – September 2017

45

Non-OPEC oil supply highlights in 2018

Non-OPEC supply growth in 2018 is expected at 1.00 mb/d,

following a downward revision of 0.10 mb/d

to average of 58.80 mb/d. This is mainly due to the downward revisions in the Russian and Kazakh oil supply

forecasts. The US, Brazil, Canada, UK and Congo are expected to be the key countries driving growth next

year, as opposed to China, Mexico, Colombia, Azerbaijan and Oman, which are expected to see a further

decline in oil supply.

Graph 5 - 4: Annual supply changes for selected countries in 2018*

Supply from

Russia

is now seen growing by 0.03 mb/d to average 10.98 mb/d in 2017, followed by growth of

0.06 mb/d in 2018.

Graph 5 - 5: Non-OPEC liquids supply quarterly forecast in 2016-2018

Graph 5 - 4

highlights actual non-OPEC quarterly oil supply in 2016 and the forecast for 2017 and 2018. The

quarterly distribution for non-OPEC supply in 2017 indicates the regular seasonal pattern due to

maintenance work, particularly in offshore areas, but with higher production levels compared to the same

quarters in 2016. It is forecast that 4Q17 will be the highest quarter for oil supply compared to other quarters.

For 2018, due to the increase in US shale production, higher growth is expected, as well as a higher

quarterly distribution throughout the year.

The main factors for higher growth expectations in 2017 compared to last year are the current improving

price environment more suitable for the shale producers, start-up of giant projects such as Kashagan, the

increasing number of active rigs in North America and the proportionally remarkable investment in upstream

projects. Nevertheless, non-OPEC supply is predicted to show mild growth of 0.16 mb/d in 2H17 compare to

-0.17

-0.16

-0.08

-0.05

-0.04

0.08

0.08

0.19

0.21

0.84

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

China

Mexico

Colombia

Azerbaijan

Oman

UK

Congo

Canada

Brazil

US

mb/d

Non-OPEC supply

growth 2018/17

1.00 mb/d

Note: * 2018 = Forecast.

Source: OPEC Secretariat.

158

1,315

998

633

737

983

1,023

1,270

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

55,000

56,000

57,000

58,000

59,000

60,000

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

2017/16 (RHS)

2018/17 (RHS)

2016

2017*

2018*

Note: * 2017 and 2018 = Forecast.

Source: OPEC Secretariat.

Y-o-y change (tb/d)

Production (tb/d)