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World Oil Supply

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – September 2017

43

World Oil Supply

Preliminary data indicates that world oil supply was down by 0.41 mb/d m-o-m in August to average

96.75 mb/d, higher by 1.66 mb/d, y-o-y.

Non-OPEC oil supply in August declined by 0.32 mb/d m-o-m to average 57.68 mb/d. Non-OPEC supply is

projected to grow by 0.78 mb/d y-o-y in 2017, which is unchanged from last month’s prediction due to the

offsetting of the upward revision in the FSU by the downward revision in OECD Americas, to average

57.80 mb/d. The main changes for the month is a result of an increase in expected oil production growth in

Kazakhstan by 0.04 mb/d in 2017 and lower growth in the US oil supply

by 0.07 mb/d in 2017. The non-

OPEC oil supply forecast in 2018 was revised down by 0.10 mb/d due to the downward revisions in

Kazakhstan and Russia. Hence, non-OPEC supply to average 58.80 mb/d with a growth of 1.00 mb/d for

2018 is anticipated.

OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids production averaged 6.31 mb/d in 2017, an increase of

0.17 mb/d, y-o-y. In 2018, production is forecast to grow by 0.18 mb/d to average 6.49 mb/d.

In August 2017, OPEC crude oil production decreased by 79 tb/d, according to secondary sources, to

average 32.76 mb/d.

Non-OPEC oil supply highlights in 2017

Non-OPEC oil supply in August

declined by 0.32 mb/d m-o-m to 57.68 mb/d,

according to the preliminary

data as US oil production from the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) and parts of Eagle Ford was partially disrupted by

Hurricane Harvey and lower output was seen coming from the North Sea and Kazakhstan following seasonal

maintenance. Meanwhile, production in Canada, other OECD Europe and Brazil increased.

Graph 5 - 1: Revisions in annual changes of 2017* for selected countries

The forecast for non-OPEC supply growth for 2017 remains unchanged from the previous MOMR at

0.78 mb/d

,

but absolute supply has been revised up by 0.03 mb/d to 57.80 mb/d, partially due to changes

following the latest information including the upward adjustment in 2Q17 and the upward revision in 2H17

due to the new assessment of production in Kazakhstan. It is expected that US oil supply will account for the

biggest share of

non-OPEC supply growth for 2017

at 0.63 mb/d and the remaining comes mainly from

Brazil, Canada and Kazakhstan, while Mexico, China and Colombia are the main countries showing a

contraction. Graph 5 - 2: Annual supply changes for selected countries in 2017*

-0.07

-0.01

-0.01

0.01

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

US

Thailand

Denmark

Norway

Russia

UK

Canada

Kazakhstan

mb/d

Note: * 2017 = Forecast.

Source: OPEC Secretariat.