World Oil Demand
OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – September 2017
Chinese oil demand
continued to grow at a very healthy pace, rising by around 0.69 mb/d or around
6% y-o-y. Total oil demand reached 11.67 mb/d during the month. Year-to-date data indicates average
growth of 0.55 mb/d, more than doubling the growth recorded during the same period in 2016 of 0.21 mb/d
The current solid pace in Chinese oil demand comes primarily from increasing LPG as a petrochemical
feedstock as well as fuel oil, jet/kerosene and gasoline, with gains of more than 20%, 16%, 13% and 4%
y-o-y, respectively. LPG demand rose by a massive 0.3 mb/d y-o-y with total consumption reaching
1.78 mb/d as ongoing demand from the petrochemical sector provided strong support. Healthy demand
growth for LPG is anticipated to continue until the end of the year, despite a possible seasonal slowdown
towards the end of 3Q17. Fuel oil consumption rose by 69 tb/d from July 2016 levels. This is largely
attributed to stronger-than-expected economic growth leading to higher demand in the petrochemical and
Gasoline demand was higher by around 0.10 mb/d y-o-y, once more motivated by robust sport utility vehicle
(SUV) sales and warm weather. Vehicle sales rose during the month of July, adding around 4% y-o-y with
total sales reaching 1.7 million units. SUV sales also rose substantially, adding around 17% compared with
one year ago. On a cumulative basis, with data up to July, the sale of passenger cars reached 12.9 million
units, up by 2% from the same period in 2016. Jet/kerosene demand rose by 87 tb/d y-o-y continuing its solid
performance in 2017 as domestic air traffic improved over the summer holiday travelling season, with a
similar trend anticipated in August.
Graph 4 - 13: Chinese apparent oil demand,
Graph 4 - 14: Chinese diesel oil and gasoline
demand, y-o-y change
Projections for 2017 oil demand
development in China improved from last month’s report due to solid
performance in 1H17. In 2018, projections based on transportation and industrial fuels are to rise next year,
though slightly lower GDP growth is expected compared with 2017 at 6.3%. Ongoing fuel quality
programmes target fewer emissions and the continuation of fuel substitution with natural gas.
Chinese oil demand
for 2017 is projected to rise by a firm 0.39 mb/d, while 2018 demand growth is
estimated to be 0.35 mb/d.
Sources: Argus Global Markets, China OGP (Xinhua News
Agency), Facts Global Energy, JODI, National Bureau of
Statistics of China and OPEC Secretariat.
Sources: Facts Global Energy, China OGP (Xinhua News
Agency), Argus Global Markets, JODI, National Bureau of
Statistics, China and OPEC Secretariat.