World Oil Demand
OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – September 2017
, oil demand growth was adjusted lower (by 0.10 mb/d in 1Q17 and 30 tb/d in 3Q17), mainly
reflecting slower-than-expected oil demand developments following the demonetization policy in India.
Latin American growth
was also revised slightly lower (by 7 tb/d in 2Q17) due to slower economic
momentum denting oil demand.
, upward revisions (by 20 tb/d in 2Q17, 70 tb/d in 3Q17 and 40 tb/d in 4Q17) stemmed from better-
than-expected demand in the petrochemical and transportation sectors of the country. The historical baseline
for 2016 was also adjusted higher (by +0.28 mb/d for the full year) to account for the most up-to-date data.
For 2018, oil demand growth was adjusted higher (by 35 tb/d for the full year) from the previous month’s
projection, mainly to reflect the expected firm expansions in the petrochemical and transportation sectors.
Graph 4 - 7: Other Asia oil demand, y-o-y change
Graph 4 - 8: Indian gasoline demand,
continued to increase at a slower pace than in 2Q17. July registered an increase of
around 43 tb/d, or 1.1%, y-o-y, with total product demand slightly above 4 mb/d. Looking at mixed product
performance, weakness in ‘other product’ categories negatively affected the overall oil demand growth
picture as the Goods and Services Tax (GST) caused uncertainties in the manufacturing sector lowering
demand for petcoke and lubricants, while demand growth for diesel, gasoline and LPG rose at various
Diesel oil demand recorded the greatest growth in July, when products registered an increase of about
0.13 tb/d, or 9%, y-o-y leading to total consumption of 1.64 mb/d. Improved overall economic activity,
ongoing infrastructure projects, especially road construction, as well as the economic viability of public
transport and diesel-driven vehicles as a result of lower fuel costs have positively affected diesel oil
consumption. Gasoline consumption increased by 61 tb/d, equating to 12% y-o-y in July. The increase in
gasoline demand growth is largely attributed to the ongoing increase in domestic passenger vehicles sales,
which expanded by around 15% y-o-y in July. Growth in two-wheeler sales was also higher at 14% y-o-y;
61% of India’s gasoline consumption is attributed to two-wheeler growth. LPG grew solidly for the seventh
consecutive month, higher by 75 tb/d, or 13%, y-o-y, with total consumption at around 0.7 mb/d. LPG
demand continues to be led by the residential sector, as ongoing projects to provide more LPG connections
to households are commissioned.
A decrease in fuel oil consumption of 31 tb/d, or around 10% y-o-y, is a result of declining consumption in the
steel and agriculture sectors, as well as substitution programmes favouring natural gas.
Sources: Joint Organisations Data Initiative, national and
Sources: OPEC Secretariat, and Petroleum Planning and
Analysis Cell of India.