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World Oil Demand

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – September 2017

35

Graph 4 - 5: OECD Asia Pacific oil demand,

y-o-y change

Graph 4 - 6: Japanese LPG and naphtha demand,

y-o-y change

The Japanese oil demand outlook for 2017 and 2018 remains unchanged from last month’s forecasts, with

risks continuing to be skewed towards the downside mainly due to weaker economic forecasts, increasing

efficiencies in the road transportation sector, as well as fuel substitution. Projections for 2018 assume a firm

likelihood that an additional number of nuclear plants will restart operation.

Table 4 - 4: Japanese domestic sales, tb/d

South Korea

Positive indications for oil demand in the region originate mostly in

South Korea

, along with smaller

additional volumes for Australia, New Zealand and some other countries. The latest available Korean data

for June indicates an increase of 0.06 mb/d over the same month last year, with demand for the majority of

main petroleum product categories on the rise, particularly naphtha, diesel oil and gasoline. The outlook for

South Korean oil demand in 2017 and 2018 remains positive, with risks slightly skewed to the upside

compared with last month’s projections.

OECD

Asia Pacific oil demand

is projected to dip slightly by 0.01 mb/d in 2017, while a similar drop will

also take place in 2018.

Non-OECD

Based on the latest available data,

oil demand growth in non-OECD regions

was adjusted marginally

lower by around 7 tb/d in 2017, despite some upward revisions in the region (China by 33 tb/d on average for

2017).

-800

-400

0

400

800

-800

-400

0

400

800

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

tb/d

tb/d

Historical range

Historical average

2016

2017

Sources: Joint Organisations Data Initiative, national and

OPEC Secretariat.

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

Jul 16

Aug 16

Sep 16

Oct 16

Nov 16

Dec 16

Jan 17

Feb 17

Mar 17

Apr 17

May 17

Jun 17

Jul 17

tb/d

LPG

Naphtha

Sources: Ministry of Economy Trade and Industry of Japan,

Joint Organisations Data Initiative and OPEC Secretariat.

Jul 17

Jul 16

tb/d

%

LPG

401

426

-25

-5.8

Naphtha

702

698

4

0.6

Gasoline

949

948

1

0.1

Jet/kerosene

342

310

32

10.3

Diesel oil

773

740

33

4.5

Fuel oil

341

331

10

3.1

Other products

303

405

-102

-25.3

Total

3,812

3,858

-46

-1.2

Change 2017/2016

Sources: JODI, Ministry of Energy and Trade and Industry of Japan and OPEC Secretariat.