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World Oil Demand

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – September 2017

33

With data available for eight months of 2017 – monthly data until June and preliminary weekly data for July

and August – US oil demand is seen to grow strongly by around 0.5 mb/d. However, the full impact of

Hurricane Harvey is not yet reflected in the preliminary data. The bulk of growth originated in the lighter and

middle parts of the barrel; LPG and distillates, gas diesel oil and jet kerosene and gasoline demand to date

are continuing to see minor growth. US oil demand for the remainder of 2017 and 2018 is expected to be

determined by developments in distillate and gasoline usage in the road transportation sector and hence

indirectly by fuel price levels and the general economic activities, which most likely will support demand for

industrial and construction fuels. Therefore, the overall implied risks for the future development of US oil

demand are balanced. Upside risks originate in projected economic growth and oil usage in the

transportation and industrial sectors, while fuel substitution and vehicle efficiencies represent major

downside risks.

Mexican

oil demand remained negative for another month in July, declining by 2.7% y-o-y. Shrinking

demand for the majority of petroleum product categories has been only partly offset by rising residual fuel oil

requirements. The risks for 2017 and 2018 Mexican oil demand are skewed to the downside and relate to the

development of the country’s overall economy.

In

Canada

, June came up strongly, increasing y-o-y for the second consecutive month. Demand for the main

petroleum products registered gains, particularly for residual fuel oil, gasoline and gas diesel oil. The overall

increase was partly offset by slightly declining naphtha demand. In 2018, Canadian oil demand is projected

to remain roughly at 2017 levels, showing only marginal increases with balanced risks.

In 2017,

OECD Americas’ oil demand

is expected to grow by 0.23 mb/d compared with 2016. In 2018,

OECD Americas’ oil demand is projected to increase by 0.19 mb/d compared with 2017.

Table 4 - 2: US oil demand, tb/d

OECD Europe

Following strong growth for the whole of 2015 and 2016,

European oil demand

continued to surprise with a

strong performance in the first half of 2017 – most data covers up to June 2017 – with some preliminary

indications for July. Solid gains were seen on top of high historical baseline volumes during 2015 and 2016

and are the result of an improving economy and consequently rising oil usage in the transportation and

industrial sectors, as well as colder temperatures than the historical norm during the first quarter of 2017.

The bulk of gains were seen in middle distillates, diesel oil, jet kerosene and naphtha; gains were partly

offset by shrinking residual fuel oil and demand.

Jun 17

Jun 16

tb/d

%

LPG

2,439

2,269

170

7.5

Naphtha

247

218

29

13.3

Gasoline

9,766

9,675

91

0.9

Jet/kerosene

1,764

1,733

31

1.8

Diesel oil

3,969

3,830

139

3.6

Fuel oil

418

338

80

23.7

Other products

2,182

2,013

170

8.4

Total

20,785

20,076

710

3.5

Change 2017/2016

Sources: US Energy Information Administration and OPEC Secretariat.