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World Oil Demand

32

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – September 2017

OECD

Based on the latest available data,

OECD oil demand

growth was revised upward for the second

consecutive month by 60 tb/d to average 0.37 mb/d. Oil demand has been quite robust in 2Q17, particularly

in the Americas and Europe.

OECD America’s oil demand data implied further firm developments during the month of June, with gains in

transportation and industrial fuels and particularly strong gains in gasoline, jet fuel, gas diesel oil and LPG.

Despite this upward trend in 2Q17 (by 100 tb/d), expectations for 3Q17 have been lowered (by 40 tb/d) as

momentum in transportation fuels is expected to somewhat weaken as a result of the catastrophic effects of

Hurricane Harvey in the month of August. The historical baseline for 2016 was also adjusted lower

(by 70 tb/d for the full year) to account for the most up-to-date data and assessments.

OECD Europe oil demand data continued to outperform initial projections. Improving economic conditions

across the region, along with positive vehicle sales and a low oil price environment, are in line with upward

adjustments of 100 tb/d and 40 tb/d in 2Q17 and 3Q17, respectively. For 2018, oil demand growth

projections were adjusted higher (by 30 tb/d for the full year) from last month’s report, in line with the steady

economic outlook for Europe.

Expectations for the OECD Asia Pacific region remained unchanged from last month’s report. The flourishing

petrochemical industry in South Korea was roughly offset by declining oil demand in Japan. Oil demand

growth for 2018 was revised slightly upwards by 10 tb/d as a result of midly improved expectations in the

region’s economy.

OECD Americas

Graph 4 - 1: OECD Americas oil demand, y-o-y

change

Graph 4 - 2: US gasoline demand, y-o-y change

US

The latest available

US

monthly data for June calls for a strong increase in oil demand of around 0.7 mb/d

y-o-y, continuing the recently observed steep growth in oil demand and in line with a number of key

indicators – the country’s robust economic growth, industrial activity and the low oil price environment.

Gains in oil demand for another month came mainly from the transportation and industrial sectors.

Demand for LPG was seen as growing y-o-y, notably for the petrochemical and to a minor extent the

transportation sectors. June distillate demand increased sharply by more than 0.34 mb/d y-o-y, with the bulk

of gains registered in the industrial sector. Growth in jet kerosene was also solid, as expected at the

beginning of the traditional holiday season and in line with increased air travel. June gasoline requirements

continued to grow for the third consecutive month, despite declining vehicle sales by 1.5% year-to-April as

compared to same period last year and a high baseline for the same month in 2016. Moreover, June residual

fuel oil requirements remained roughly flat y-o-y.

-1,500

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

-1,500

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

tb/d

tb/d

Historical range

Historical average

2016

2017

Sources: National, Joint Organisations Data Initiative and

OPEC Secretariat.

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

Jun 16

Jul 16

Aug 16

Sep 16

Oct 16

Nov 16

Dec 16

Jan 17

Feb 17

Mar 17

Apr 17

May 17

Jun 17

tb/d

Source: US Energy Information Administration.