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World Economy

28

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – September 2017

naira was largely stable after depreciating by 50% in June–August 2016. It appreciated slightly by 0.1%

m-o-m in August. In another positive note, the country’s private sector registered its fastest pace of growth in

26 months in August as suggested by the Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI. The index jumped to 55.0 in

August, from 54.8 in July and 52.9 in June because of the fast pace of expansion in both output and new

orders.

Despite the pace of acceleration in new business somewhat eased last month, growth achieved

could still be deemed as strong. The survey also suggested a contraction in new export orders for the

second consecutive month in August and most of the demand came from the domestic market.

Graph 3 - 33: Nigeria manufacturing PMIs

Graph 3 - 34: Nigeria inflation

Inflation in the

United Arab Emirates

(UAE) eased from nearly 3.0% y-o-y in March to 2.0% y-o-y in June.

The ease in prices of housing, water, electricity and gas was behind the fall in the overall index. The

subcategory of housing, water, electricity and gas showed notable decline from 1.5% y-o-y in May, to 1.0%

y-o-y in June. In addition, prices of the recreational, cultural goods and services was in the negative territory

since December 2016. It declined by 7.8% y-o-y in June, following the 5.4% y-o-y drop a month earlier. Most

of other categories of consumer prices were largely stable in June. Expansion in the country’s non-oil private

sector rose in August to its quickest pace since February 2015, according to the Emirates NBD UAE PMI.

The index stood at 57.3 in August, up from 56.0 in July on a large expansion in new orders. The survey also

showed that new export orders increased for the first time in three months, with other GCC countries are

perceived as major international markets. The current expansionary trend in new orders was reflected into

slightly higher employment. The firms’ upbeat sentiment towards short-term outlook have led to large

increase in their inventories by fastest rate in history of the survey, preparing for episodes of greater output.

Graph 3 - 35: UAE manufacturing PMIs

Graph 3 - 36: UAE inflation

55.0

45

50

55

60

Aug 15

Oct 15

Dec 15

Feb 16

Apr 16

Jun 16

Aug 16

Oct 16

Dec 16

Feb 17

Apr 17

Jun 17

Aug 17

Index

Sources: IHS Markit, Stanbic IBTC Bank and Haver Analytics.

16.1

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Jul 15

Sep 15

Nov 15

Jan 16

Mar 16

May 16

Jul 16

Sep 16

Nov 16

Jan 17

Mar 17

May 17

Jul 17

Sources: National Bureau of Statistics and Haver Analytics.

% change y-o-y

57.3

45

50

55

60

Aug 15

Oct 15

Dec 15

Feb 16

Apr 16

Jun 16

Aug 16

Oct 16

Dec 16

Feb 17

Apr 17

Jun 17

Aug 17

Index

Sources: Emirates NBD, IHS Markit and Haver Analytics.

2.0

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Jun 15

Aug 15

Oct 15

Dec 15

Feb 16

Apr 16

Jun 16

Aug 16

Oct 16

Dec 16

Feb 17

Apr 17

Jun 17

Sources: General Authority for Statistics and Haver Analytics.

% change y-o-y