OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – September 2017
continued its easing trend, reaching its lowest ever rate of 2.1% y-o-y in July. This represents a
quick fall in inflation from June’s 2.6%. To catch up with rapidly declining inflation, the central bank lowered
by a full 10 percentage points in July for the second month in a row, to stand at
posted its fourth back-to-back fall in July, registering 12.8% versus 13.0%
In August 2017, business conditions in the
continued to improve, posting solid factory
orders, especially in new orders for export, which were at their highest level since April 2016. The IHS Markit
Manufacturing PMI for the country rose to 50.9 in August, up from 50.0 in July. The services sector remained
in contraction territory in August, though showing its best performance in three months. The IHS Markit Brazil
Services JPMI Business Activity Index registered 49.0 in August, from 48.8 in July and 47.4 in June. The
survey showed a marginal uptick in the inflow of new orders, together with an output decline which slowed
over the past three months.
Graph 3 - 10: Brazilian manufacturing and
Graph 3 - 11: Brazilian consumer confidence
Household consumption is anticipated to continue improving next year due to low inflation and a reduced
interest rate. While the GFCF deceleration highlighted a notable slowdown since 2Q16, the rate of
contraction remained sizable with no obvious trend towards easing.
is expected to grow by 0.5% and 1.5% in 2017 and 2018, respectively.
posted growth of 2.5% y-o-y in 2Q17, up from 0.5% in the previous quarter. This represents
the fastest rate of growth since 3Q12, and it is the preliminary estimate of the Federal Statistics Office and no
further details are available yet.
posted its first growth in 1Q17 after two
consecutive years of contraction. It grew by 2.7% y-o-y in 1Q17, compared with a 3.2% y-o-y contraction in
the previous quarter. The GFCF also increased in 1Q17 for the first time in nearly three years. It expanded
by 2.3% y-o-y in 1Q17, from a 0.3% y-o-y drop in 4Q16.
was largely stable on average in August, appreciating by only 0.1% m-o-m.
eased in July
to 3.9% y-o-y, from June’s 4.4%. As the easing inflationary trend was interrupted in June, when it moved
away from the central bank’s target of 4.0%, the central bank kept its benchmark
9.0% last month.
Sources: IHS Markit and Haver Analytics.
Sources: Fundação Getúlio Vargas and Haver Analytics.