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Balance of Supply and Demand

84

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – October 2017

Balance of Supply and Demand

OPEC crude in 2017 is estimated to be 32.8 mb/d, or 0.6 mb/d higher than in 2016. In 2018, OPEC crude is

projected to reach 33.1 mb/d, about 0.3 mb/d higher than in 2017.

Balance of supply and demand in 2017

OPEC crude

in 2017

was revised up 0.1 mb/d from the previous month to 32.8 mb/d, representing an

increase of 0.6 mb/d over 2016.

Within the quarters, the first and second quarters were revised up by 0.1 mb/d and 0.4 mb/d respectively.

While the third quarter was revised up by 0.1 mb/d, the fourth quarter remained unchanged compared to the

previous month. The first and the second quarter increased by 1.0 mb/d and 0.8 mb/d respectively, while the

third and fourth quarters are expected to grew by 0.4 mb/d each, when comparted to the same quarter last

year.

Table 10 - 1: Supply/demand balance for 2017*, mb/d

Balance of supply and demand in 2018

OPEC crude for 2018

was revived up by more than 0.2 mb/d from the previous month to 33.1 mb/d

representing an increase of 0.3 mb/d over 2017.

Within the quarters, both the first and third quarter were revised up by 0.1 mb/d each. The second quarter

was revised up by 0.2 mb/d, while the fourth quarter was revised up by 0.4 mb/d compared to the previous

month. The first quarter rose by 0.4 mb/d versus the same quarter this year, while, the third and the fourth

quarters are expected to increase by 0.2 mb/d and 0.5 mb/d respectively. The second quarter is projected to

remain unchanged, when compared to the same quarter in 2017.

Change

2016 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 2017 2017/16

(a) World oil demand

95.35 95.59 96.21 97.49 97.91 96.80 1.45

Non-OPEC supply

57.02 57.87 57.29 57.34 58.28 57.69 0.68

OPEC NGLs and non-conventionals

6.14 6.20 6.26 6.35 6.42 6.31 0.17

(b) Total non-OPEC supply and OPEC NGLs 63.16 64.07 63.55 63.69 64.69 64.00 0.84

Difference (a-b)

32.19 31.52 32.66 33.80 33.22 32.80 0.61

OPEC crude oil production

32.65 32.12 32.28 32.74

Balance

0.46 0.60 -0.38 -1.07

Note: * 2017 = Forecast.

Totals may not add up due to independent rounding.

Source: OPEC Secretariat.