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Stock Movements

80

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – October 2017

US

Preliminary data for September shows that

US total commercial oil stocks

fell by 16 mb, for the fourth

consecutive month to stand at 1,294.4 mb, which is 62 mb, or 4.6%, lower than the same period a year ago,

but still 105 mb, or 8.8%, higher than the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude went up by

2.6 mb, while product stocks fell by 18.6 mb, m-o-m.

US

commercial crude stocks

rose in September

to end the month at 465 mb, which is 6.6 mb below

last year at the same time but 81 mb above the

latest five-year average. After witnessing three

consecutive weeks of commercial crude oil stock

builds following Hurricane Harvey, US commercial

crude stocks were followed by another two weeks

of draws with a substantial drop of 6 mb in the week

ending 29 September. This was mainly driven by

the record-high weekly crude oil exports, reaching

2.0 mb/d and a drop in crude imports by 0.2 mb/d to

average 7.2 mb/d. PADD3 crude oil stocks plunged

by 4.4 mb from a week earlier. Crude inventories in

Cushing, Oklahoma rose by 4.5 mb during the end

of September to stand at 62.5 mb.

By contrast,

total product stocks

fell substantially

by 18.6 mb to stand at 829.5 mb in September,

which is 55 mb, or 6.2%, down from the level seen

at the same time in 2016, but 24 mb, or 2.9%,

Graph 9 - 3: US weekly commercial crude oil

inventories

above the seasonal average. Within products, residual fuel oil and jet fuel rose, while major products

experienced stock draws.

Gasoline stocks

fell by 7.8 mb in September to

stand at 218.9 mb, which is 8.8 mb, or 3.8%, below

a year ago at the same time, while they remained

1.7 mb, or 0.8%, above the seasonal norm.

Following three consecutive weeks of declines

totalling 13.7 mb, gasoline stocks in the US

reversed the trend to build by 2.7 mb over the last

two weeks, driven mainly by a drop in demand,

which declined by almost 0.3 mb/d to average

9.2 mb/d, in line with the seasonal decline at the

end of the driving season. Gasoline production

remained strong at almost 10 mb/d. The gasoline

stock build came despite a fall in gasoline imports

by around 180 tb/d to average 0.8 mb/d in the same

week.

Distillate stocks

also fell by 12.3 mb in September

to stand at 135.4 mb, indicating a deficit of 25.6 mb,

Graph 9 - 4: US weekly gasoline inventories

or 15.9%, compared to the same period a year ago, and 4.3 mb, or 3.1%, below the latest five-year average.

Since Hurricane Harvey, US distillate stocks have continued to drop for five weeks in a row, bringing the total

US distillate stock draw to around 11 mb. This drop has switched the difference to the five-year average from

a surplus of 13 mb in the week before the hurricane to now stand at 4.3 mb below this average in the week

ending 29 September. The drop in distillate stocks came on the back on higher demand and exports more

than offsetting the increase in output. This tightness in the distillates market ahead of the winter season

should support domestic refinery margins, as demand for gasoline wanes on the expected seasonal low.

In contrast,

residual fuel and jet fuel stocks

rose by 2.0 mb and 4.3 mb to end September at 36.6 mb and

43.4 mb, respectively. Both product stocks stood below last year at the same time. Compared to the five-

year average, residual fuel was higher at 1.3 mb and jet fuel was up at 2.8 mb.

300

350

400

450

500

550

300

350

400

450

500

550

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49

mb

mb

2015

2016

2017

Average 2012-2016

Historical range

2012-2016

Sources: US Energy Information Administration and

OPEC Secretariat.

Week

195

205

215

225

235

245

255

265

195

205

215

225

235

245

255

265

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49

mb

mb

2015

2016

2017

Average 2012-2016

Historical range

2012-2016

Sources: US Energy Information Administration and

OPEC Secretariat.

Week