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Stock Movements

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – October 2017

77

Stock Movements

OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 24.7 mb in August to stand at 2,996 mb, which is around 171 mb above

the latest five-year average. Crude and products indicated surpluses of 146 mb and 25 mb above the

seasonal norm, respectively. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks stood at

63.2 days in August, which is 2.6 days higher than the latest five-year average.

Preliminary data for September shows that US total commercial oil stocks fell by 16 mb to stand at

1,294.4 mb. At this level, they are 62 mb lower than the same period a year ago, but 104 mb higher than the

latest five-year average. Within the components, crude went up by 2.6 mb, while product stocks fell by

18.6 mb, m-o-m.

The latest information for China showed that total commercial oil inventories fell by 9.3 mb in August for the

second consecutive month to settle at 371.2 mb, which is 4.7 mb lower than the previous year. Within the

components, crude and product stocks fell by 8.0 mb and 1.3 mb, m-o-m, respectively.

OECD

Preliminary data for August shows that total

OECD commercial oil stocks

fell by 16.1 mb for the third

consecutive month to stand at 2,996 mb, which is around 94 mb lower than the same time one year ago, but

171 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude fell by 24.7 mb, while product

stocks rose by 8.7 mb, m-o-m. OECD Americas and OECD Asia Pacific witnessed stock draws, while

OECD Europe saw builds. It should be noted that the overhang has been reduced by 34 mb from a month

earlier and by 167 mb from January 2017.

OECD commercial

crude stocks

fell by 24.7 mb

m-o-m in August for the fifth consecutive month to

stand at 1,506 mb, which is almost in line with the

same time a year ago, but around 146 mb higher

than the latest five-year average. Inventories in all

OECD regions experienced draws.

In contrast, OECD

product inventories

rose by

8.7 mb m-o-m in August to stand at 1,490 mb,

which is 93 mb below the same time a year ago,

but 25 mb above the seasonal norm. All OECD

regions saw stock builds.

In terms of

days of forward cover

, OECD

commercial stocks remained unchanged at

63.2 days in August, which is 2.1 days below the

same period in 2016, but 2.6 days higher than the

latest five-year average. Within the regions, OECD

Americas had 3.3 more days of forward cover than

Graph 9 - 1: OECD commercial oil stocks

the historical average to stand at 62.5 days in August. OECD Europe stood at 2.1 days higher than the

seasonal average to finish the month at 69.1 days, while OECD Asia Pacific indicated a small surplus of

0.6 days higher than the seasonal norm, averaging 54.5 days in August.

2,500

2,600

2,700

2,800

2,900

3,000

3,100

3,200

2,500

2,600

2,700

2,800

2,900

3,000

3,100

3,200

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

mb

mb

2015

2016

2017

Historical range

2012-16

Sources: Argus Media, Euroilstock, IEA, METI, OPEC

Secretariat and US Energy Information Administration.

Avg. 2012-16