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World Oil Supply

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – October 2017

57

Graph 5 - 25: Kazakhstan liquids supply quarterly

forecast, 2016-2018

Graph 5 - 26: China liquids supply quarterly

forecast, 2016-2018

China

China’s oil supply

declined by 0.06 mb/d in August to 3.91 mb/d, including 3.76 mb/d of crude oil, according

to data released by the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics. Average crude oil production for the first

8 months of 2017 declined by 166 tb/d compared to the same period in 2016. China’s leading state

companies PetroChina and Sinopec continued to restrain investment at the expense of crude production.

For instance, PetroChina’s upstream spending in 2Q17 was down by 72% to $5 billion compared with the

same quarter one year earlier. Hence, crude oil production for the company declined by 33% to 1.7 mb/d in

the same period. In general, upstream investments in oil and gas projects have not seen sustained

improvements so far this year, according to the latest report issued in July by the Ministry of Land and

Resources. In 2016, approximately $30 billion was spent for exploration and development of oil and gas in

China. Chinese oil output is forecast to decline by roughly 0.12 mb/d in 2017 and 0.17 mb/d in 2018.

OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils

The forecast for

OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids

in 2017 was unchanged, averaging 6.31 mb/d

and representing growth of 0.17 mb/d. In 2018, due to a number of planned projects, growth of 0.18 mb/d

y-o-y is anticipated, with average output at 6.49 mb/d. These projects are expected to be mainly in IR Iran

and Saudi Arabia.

Table 5 - 8: OPEC NGLs + non-conventional oils, 2015-2018*, mb/d

103

222

268

123

102

105

8

38

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

2017/16 (RHS)

2018/17 (RHS)

2016

2017*

2018*

Note: * 2017 and 2018 = Forecast.

Source: OPEC Secretariat.

Y-o-y change (tb/d)

Production (tb/d)

-229

-103

-85

-50

-122

-214

-164

-187

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

3,700

3,800

3,900

4,000

4,100

4,200

4,300

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

2017/16 (RHS)

2018/17 (RHS)

2016

2017*

2018*

Note: * 2017 and 2018 = Forecast.

Source: OPEC Secretariat.

Y-o-y change (tb/d)

Production (tb/d)

Change

Change

Change

2015 2016

16/15 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 2017

17/16 2018 18/17

Total OPEC 6.04 6.14

0.10 6.20 6.26 6.35 6.42

6.31

0.17

6.49

0.18

Note: * 2017 and 2018 = Forecast.

Source: OPEC Secretariat.