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World Oil Supply

56

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – October 2017

Russia

Preliminary Russian liquids output in September

remained unchanged m-o-m at 10.935 mb/d

according to the Ministry of Energy, due to peak

maintenance. Total liquids output including NGLs in

3Q17 was reported lower than 2Q17 at 10.95 mb/d.

Moreover, Russia’s liquids output in 2Q17 indicates

an average of 10.99 mb/d which represents a drop

of 0.26 mb/d over 1Q17, owing to some major

Russian oil companies having adjusted output by

roughly 3% in line with the Declaration of

Cooperation with OPEC and other key producing

countries. As a result, Russian oil output data

indicates that conformity of more than 300 tb/d has

already been achieved by the Russian Federation.

The comparison between OPEC, IEA and EIA is

shown in

Graph 5 - 24.

According to the latest assessment, Russian oil

production in 2017 is expected to decline by

0.04 mb/d for this year to average 11.04 mb/d,

Graph 5 - 24

: Comparison of Russia’s quarterly

liquids output by different sources

revised down by 75 tb/d from the previous month’s forecast. At the same time, the oil supply forecast for

2018 was revised down by 73 tb/d, representing a decline of 0.01 mb/d y-o-y to average 11.03 mb/d.

Regarding to Russian upstream project start-ups, three new upstream projects are expected to start-up in

4Q17, most probably in October. These are Kondinskoye, which has a peak capacity of 55 tb/d, and

Kosukhinskoye, where peak production will be 33 tb/d. Both will be implemented by Rosneft along with a

third, Odoptu stage 2 (phase 1) by ExxonMobil, with peak production at 29 tb/d. Total production capacity of

179 tb/d is also planned to be added in 1Q18 from Russian companies. This will come from Tambeyskoye

Yuzhnoye by Novatek and two others, namely, the Yaregskoye expansion and phase 2 of Vladimir

Filanovsky by Lukoil by the end of February 2018. All these six projects will peak beyond 2020.

Caspian

In

Azerbaijan

, according to data provided by the Ministry of Energy, oil production declined by 0.07 mb/d

m-o-m, averaging 0.75 mb/d in August, lower by 0.10 mb/d, y-o-y. Of this, 0.68 mb/d was crude and

0.07 mb/d NGLs. The decline was likely caused by the ACG complex, which accounts for three quarters of

Azerbaijan’s output. ACG output averaged 0.59 mb/d during 1H17, compared with 0.66 mb/d a year earlier.

Output from Azerbaijan averaged 797 tb/d in the last eight months of 2017, 40 tb/d lower than last October.

It is expected that supply for 2017 and 2018 will decline by 0.06 mb/d and 0.05 mb/d y-o-y to average

0.79 mb/d and 0.74 mb/d, respectively.

Kazakhstan’s crude production

declined by 78 tb/d m-o-m to average 1.4 mb/d in August. NGLs output

remained steady at 0.27 mb/d in August, indicating a total liquids supply of around 1.67 mb/d. This

represents a decline by 0.07 mb/d m-o-m. Continuous gains from the Kashagan field, which reached

0.2 mb/d in July according to statements from the operator Eni, and a rebound in volumes from the

Karachaganak condensate field offset the production decline at Tengiz, Kazakhstan’s largest oil field, which

was reported to see lower output in August, and declines from other fields because of maintenance over the

month. Oil production forecasts in 2017 and 2018 indicate growth of 0.18 mb/d for this year, all coming from

Kashagan phase one development, and 0.06 mb/d for the next year. However, production next year is likely

to be more uncertain, as peak output in Kashagan might come sooner than expected in 2019.

11.25

10.95

11.59

11.29

11.45

11.13

10.98

10.8

11.0

11.2

11.4

11.6

11.8

4Q16

1Q17

2Q17

3Q17

mb/d

OPEC

IEA

EIA

Required level

Sources: EIA, IEA and OPEC Secretariat.