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World Oil Supply

54

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – October 2017

Developing Countries

The total oil supply of developing countries

(DCs) is estimated to reach an average of 11.98 mb/d in

2017, revised down by 16 tb/d due to the downward revision in 3Q17, and is expected to grow by 0.08 mb/d

y-o-y. This month’s assessment is lower compared with the previous one, owing to downward revisions in

Other Asia and Latin America by 60 tb/d and 61 tb/d, respectively, which partially offset the upward revision

in the Middle East, all in 3Q17. With actual and preliminary supply data of Developing Countries for August

and September at 11.93 mb/d and 11.91 mb/d, respectively, the 3Q17 average supply at 11.92 mb/d was

higher by 0.01 mb/d compared to the previous quarter, but lower by 0.05 mb/d y-o-y. For 2018, Developing

Countries’ supply is forecast to grow by 0.10 mb/d y-o-y to average 12.09 mb/d, unchanged from the last

MOMR

.

Oil production is expected to increase in

Latin America

by 0.14 mb/d to average 5.25 mb/d in 2017. This will

be mainly in Brazil where it is expected to rise by 0.21 mb/d. Other countries in the region will witness

declines, except Trinidad and Tobago, which shows steady production levels compared to last year.

Colombian oil production stood at 0.88 mb/d in August, unchanged from July and 0.03 mb/d higher than a

year ago. Production in Colombia is expected to fall by 0.04 mb/d and 0.08 mb/d due to spending cuts from

the largest upstream players as well as a number of outages in 2017 and 2018.

In

Africa

, a production increase of 0.05 mb/d – primarily from Ghana and Congo – is expected for 2017 and

2018 to lead to averages of 1.85 mb/d and 1.90 mb/d, respectively.

The oil supply from

Other Asia

is expected to decline by 0.07 mb/d and 0.04 mb/d in 2017 and 2018 to

average 3.65 mb/d and 3.61 mb/d, respectively.

Non-OPEC oil production in the

Middle East

region is predicted to decline by 0.04 mb/d and 0.05 mb/d in

2017 and 2018, averaging 1.24 mb/d and 1.19 mb/d, respectively.

Table 5 - 7: Developing countries liquids supply, mb/d

Latin America

Graph 5 - 20: Latin America liquids supply

quarterly forecast, 2016-2018

Graph 5 - 21: Brazil liquids supply quarterly

forecast, 2016-2018

Change

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

Yearly

Y-o-y

2016

11.80

11.79

11.97

12.03

11.90

-0.15

2017

11.96

11.90

11.92

12.16

11.98

0.09

2018

12.11

12.08

12.06

12.08

12.08

0.10

Source: OPEC Secretariat.

241

149

20

169

195

163 171

48

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

4,800

4,900

5,000

5,100

5,200

5,300

5,400

5,500

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

2017/16 (RHS)

2018/17 (RHS)

2016

2017*

2018*

Note: * 2017 and 2018 = Forecast.

Source: OPEC Secretariat.

Y-o-y change (tb/d)

Production (tb/d)

370

228

53

193

235

240

317

172

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2,700

2,900

3,100

3,300

3,500

3,700

3,900

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

2017/16 (RHS)

2018/17 (RHS)

2016

2017*

2018*

Note: * 2017 and 2018 = Forecast.

Source: OPEC Secretariat.

Y-o-y change (tb/d)

Production (tb/d)