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World Oil Supply

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – October 2017

53

Norway

According to Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD) data, preliminary production figures for August 2017

show an average production of 1.92 mb/d of oil, NGL and condensate, which is a decrease of 41 tb/d

compared to July. Average liquids production in August comprised of 1.55 mb/d for oil, 0.34 mb/d for NGLs

and 0.03 mb/d for condensate. Oil production in August 2017 was around 1.4 % below the level of August

last year, and about 1.6% below the NPD’s prognosis for August 2017.

Final production figures for July 2017 show an average production of about 1.6 mb/d of oil and 0.36 mb/d of

NGLs and condensate. Oil production is about 1.2% above the prognosis so far this year and is expected to

fall back again in September as the amount of field maintenance increases, with work planned at the

Gudrun, Skarv, Valhall and Vigdis fields, impacting an average of 0.05 mb/d of output across the month. In

September, this will continue at the Goliat field, impacting 0.1 mb/d. NGLs and condensate increased by

0.09 mb/d compared with June.

The oil supply forecast for 2017 remained unchanged at 2.02 mb/d, indicating annual growth of 0.03 mb/d,

y-o-y. For 2018, a contraction of 0.01 mb/d is expected, to reach an average of 2.01 mb/d.

Graph 5 - 18: Norway liquids supply quarterly

forecast, 2016-2018

Graph 5 - 19: UK liquids supply quarterly

forecast, 2016-2018

UK

The UK’s oil output

over the first seven months increased by 0.03 mb/d to average 1.05 mb/d compared to

the average annual supply in 2016. However, August liquids supply was down by 100 tb/d m-o-m, averaging

0.96 mb/d, as maintenance was at the highest level for the year. In the beginning of July, key fields were

offline for maintenance work, including Forties and Britania, however production returned in fields such as

Alma, Galia, Forties, Beryl and J-Area. Maintenance works continued in August on the Graben Export Line,

which connects several platforms with a capacity of around 0.1 mb/d to the Forties Pipeline System.

August also saw peak UK field maintenance, when around 0.1 mb/d of production was taken offline

compared to July’s crude oil output of 926 tb/d. Maintenance also meant that Forties loadings dropped

m-o-m by 135 tb/d to 0.27 mb/d in August, before picking up to 0.36 mb/d in September, and are scheduled

to rise to 0.43 mb/d in October. Production is nevertheless expected to increase in the coming months to the

end of the year through the ramping up of new fields, such as Quad 204 and Kraken as well as from the

Catcher project start-up.

The UK’s overall oil production in 2017 is predicted to grow by 20 tb/d y-o-y to average 1.04 mb/d, an upward

revision of 0.04 mb/d in terms of annual growth, due to higher-than-expected volumes from new projects and

the continued ramp up of previous projects such as Kraken, Monarb, Flyndre, Quad 204 and Greater Stella.

For next year, because of a downward revision of 10 tb/d, growth of 0.07 mb/d for average oil supply of

1.11 mb/d is anticipated.

47

70

25

-40

-4

-20

2

-2

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

1,850

1,900

1,950

2,000

2,050

2,100

2,150

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

2017/16 (RHS)

2018/17 (RHS)

2016

2017*

2018*

Note: * 2017 and 2018 = Forecast.

Source: OPEC Secretariat.

Y-o-y change (tb/d)

Production (tb/d)

-29

-7

45

55

43

49

83

112

-50

0

50

100

150

800

850

900

950

1,000

1,050

1,100

1,150

1,200

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

2017/16 (RHS)

2018/17 (RHS)

2016

2017*

2018*

Note: * 2017 and 2018 = Forecast.

Source: OPEC Secretariat.

Y-o-y change (tb/d)

Production (tb/d)