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World Oil Supply

52

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – October 2017

Canada shows the greatest supply growth potential for 4Q17 start-ups. Resources coming online have

doubled this year, compared to last year. The main contributor is Fort Hills Phase 1, which is jointly owned by

Suncor, Total E&P Canada and Teck Resources and scheduled to begin producing oil by the end of 2017.

Plateau liquids production is estimated at 171 tb/d. CNRL’s Horizon phase 3 with 876 mb of recoverable

resources will contribute the most to 2017 production and the asset is expected to reach a production

plateau of 72 tb/d of liquids by 2020. It is also expected that the Hebron offshore field will start oil production

in mid-December by ExxonMobil. The plateau liquids production from Hebron is estimated at 123 tb/d.

Total Canadian oil supplies

are forecast to expand by190 tb/d in both 2017 and 2018 to average 4.70 mb/d

and 4.89 mb/d, respectively.

Graph 5 - 16: Canada liquids supply quarterly

forecast, 2016-2018

Graph 5 - 17: Mexico liquids supply quarterly

forecast, 2016-2018

Mexico

Mexican oil production

fell by 72 tb/d m-o-m in August to average 2.20 mb/d, mainly due to a decline of

56 tb/d in crude oil to average 1.93 mb/d, which resulted in a downward revision by 0.06 mb/d for 3Q17.

August’s crude output was lower by 0.21 mb/d y-o-y, with the majority of declines coming from small fields,

where production fell y-o-y by 0.09 mb/d. Following a m-o-m decline in July, maintenance at the Ku-Maloob-

Zaap field which started in the last week of July, continued through the first week of August, leading to lower

production from this field. Preliminary liquids output in September indicated a minor decline of 10 tb/d at

2.19 mb/d.

As a result, a y-o-y contraction of 0.19 mb/d is expected for this year, revised down by 0.02 mb/d in this

month’s analysis. For next year, a minimum decline of 0.15 mb/d is anticipated.

OECD Europe

Actual OECD Europe’s oil supply

was down by 0.10 mb/d m-o-m in August to reach 3.70 mb/d, while this

was higher by 0.05 mb/d y-o-y. Production in Norway and the UK declined m-o-m while oil output grew in

other OECD Europe. At 3.83 mb/d, oil supply for 2H17 is expected to be lower by 0.04 mb/d over 1H17 due

to lower than expected production in the UK and Norway. Crude and condensate output from the Danish

portion of the North Sea is also forecast to fall in 2017 and 2018 by 0.01 mb/d, continuing a long-term trend.

Overall growth of 0.04 mb/d is anticipated for the current year; 0.08 mb/d for next year.

302

618

63

-198

-177

297

235

397

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

3,500

3,700

3,900

4,100

4,300

4,500

4,700

4,900

5,100

5,300

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

2017/16 (RHS)

2018/17 (RHS)

2016

2017*

2018*

Note: * 2017 and 2018 = Forecast.

Source: OPEC Secretariat.

Y-o-y change (tb/d)

Production (tb/d)

-213

-180

-235

-157

-153

-207

-139

-176

-300

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

2017/16 (RHS)

2018/17 (RHS)

2016

2017*

2018*

Note: * 2017 and 2018 = Forecast.

Source: OPEC Secretariat.

Y-o-y change (tb/d)

Production (tb/d)