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World Oil Supply

48

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – October 2017

Graph 5 - 7:OECD Americas liquids supply

quarterly forecast, 2016-2018

Graph 5 - 8: US liquids supply quarterly forecast,

2016-2018

US

According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), monthly crude oil production averaged

9.24 mb/d in July 2017, representing an increase of 141 tb/d from June. In July, US crude oil and total supply

data showed a lower level compared to preliminary US weekly reports.

US total supply excluding processing gains grew by 0.12 mb/d to average 14.28 mb/d. US NGLs were up by

0.01 mb/d to average 3.76 mb/d, mainly from unconventional sources. Crude oil production increased m-o-m

in Texas (+21 tb/d), North Dakota (+14 tb/d), Colorado (+18 tb/d) and most importantly in the Gulf of Mexico

(+127 tb/d) to average 1.76 mb/d, while the main drop was seen in Alaska by 40 tb/d.

US crude oil production is expected to grow by 0.41 mb/d y-o-y to average 9.27 mb/d, while US NGLs output

is expected to grow by 0.19 mb/d. US liquids supply in 2017 and 2018 is anticipated to increase by

0.60 mb/d and 0.86 mb/d to average 14.24 mb/d and 15.09 mb/d, respectively.

Table 5 - 4: US liquids production breakdown

US Lower 48 states’ onshore crude oil output declined from a peak of 7.63 mb/d in March 2015 to 6.51 mb/d

in December 2016, but gathered renewed momentum in 2017. In July 2017, it had grown by 532 tb/d over

the December level to average 7.04 mb/d. US tight oil production grew by 105 tb/d m-o-m to average

4.78 mb/d in July, surpassing previous highest level of 4.70 mb/d in March 2015, according to EIA official

data. Tight crude output from tight horizontal wells increased in the Permian by 0.05 mb/d to average

1.88 mb/d in July and for August, preliminary data indicates an even higher level at 1.92 mb/d, while tight

crude output in the Eagle Ford dropped by 0.06 mb/d to average 1.17 mb/d following the heavy flooding

caused by Hurricane Harvey. Other regions either stagnated or experienced minor declines.

84

828

725

758

734

1,015

896

861

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

19,500

20,000

20,500

21,000

21,500

22,000

22,500

23,000

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

2017/16 (RHS)

2018/17 (RHS)

2016

2017*

2018*

Note: * 2017 and 2018 = Forecast.

Source: OPEC Secretariat.

Y-o-y change (tb/d)

Production (tb/d)

389

896

1,113

1,063

925

801

640

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

12,800

13,300

13,800

14,300

14,800

15,300

15,800

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

2017/16 (RHS)

2018/17 (RHS)

2016

2017*

2018*

Note: * 2017 and 2018 = Forecast.

Source: OPEC Secretariat.

Y-o-y change (tb/d)

Production (tb/d)

Change

Change

Change

2015

2016 2016/15

2017* 2017/16

2018* 2018/17

Tight crude

4,581

4,238

-344

4,738

500

5,357

619

Gulf of Mexico crude

1,515

1,598

83

1,690

92

1,770

80

Conventional crude oil

3,312

3,021

-291

2,841

-180

2,715

-126

Unconventional NGLs

2,347

2,562

215

2,688

126

2,891

203

Conventional NGLs

995

947

-48

1,007

60

1,067

60

Biofuels + Other liquids

1,283

1,268

-15

1,272

4

1,292

20

US total supply

14,034 13,634

-400 14,236

602 15,092

856

Note: * 2017 and 2018 = Forecast.

Sources: Energy Information Administration, Rystad Energy and OPEC Secretariat.