Table of Contents Table of Contents
Previous Page  54 / 106 Next Page
Information
Show Menu
Previous Page 54 / 106 Next Page
Page Background

World Oil Supply

46

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – October 2017

The main factors for higher growth expectations for the remaining month of 2017 compared to last year are

the current improving price environment, which is more suitable for shale producers; the start-up of giant

projects, such as Kashagan; the increasing number of active rigs in North America; and notable investment

in upstream projects. Nevertheless, non-OPEC supply is predicted to show milder growth of 0.23 mb/d in

2H17 compared to 1H17. It is expected that 1H18 will be higher by 0.71 mb/d than 2H17 and 2H18, at an

average of 58.75 mb/d, could be higher by 0.23 mb/d than 1H18.

The quarterly oil supply forecast in 2017 and 2018

(

Graph 5 – 6

and

Table 5 – 2

) indicates a yearly

higher oil output level from 2016, due to increased

investment. This will lead to higher production and

annual growth in non-OPEC supply in 2017 and

2018. Nevertheless, the forecast for non-OPEC

supply in 2018 encompasses a high level of

uncertainty as well as opportunity.

In terms of annual changes on a non-OPEC

regional basis for the next year, it is expected that

oil supply in all regions in the OECD – Americas,

Europe and Asia Pacific – will grow by 0.88 mb/d,

0.08 mb/d and 0.04 mb/d, respectively. In DCs;

Latin America and Africa are expected to grow

while the Middle East and Other Asia regions will

decline. Finally, the FSU and China are seen to

decline by 0.01 mb/d and 0.17 mb/d, respectively.

Graph 5 - 6: Regional non-OPEC supply growth,

y-o-y change

Table 5 - 2: Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018*, mb/d

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Amer. Eur. AP. O.

Asia

LA ME Africa FSU China

OECD

Non-OECD

mb/d

2016/15 2017/16 2018/17

Note: 2017 and 2018 = Forecast.

Source: OPEC Secretariat.

2017 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 2018 Growth

%

Americas

21.21 21.84 21.96 22.10 22.44 22.09

0.88 4.13

of which US

14.24 14.88 15.04 15.10 15.34 15.09

0.86 6.01

Europe

3.85 3.99 3.88 3.81 4.02 3.93

0.08 2.06

Asia Pacific

0.40 0.42 0.45 0.46 0.45 0.45

0.04 11.16

Total OECD

25.46 26.26 26.29 26.37 26.91 26.46

1.00 3.93

Other Asia

3.65 3.63 3.62 3.60 3.58 3.61

-0.04 -1.08

Latin America

5.25 5.39 5.37 5.38 5.43 5.39

0.14 2.74

Middle East

1.24 1.20 1.19 1.18 1.17 1.19

-0.05 -3.98

Africa

1.85 1.89 1.89 1.90 1.90 1.90

0.04 2.36

Total DCs

11.98 12.11 12.08 12.06 12.08 12.08

0.10 0.82

FSU

13.94 13.93 13.93 13.82 14.02 13.93

-0.01 -0.10

of which Russia

11.04 10.98 11.01 11.03 11.10 11.03

-0.01 -0.10

Other Europe

0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.13

0.00 -0.63

China

3.98 3.90 3.81 3.76 3.76 3.81

-0.17 -4.32

Total "Other regions"

18.05 17.96 17.87 17.71 17.90 17.86

-0.19 -1.03

Total non-OPEC

production

55.49 56.33 56.24 56.14 56.90 56.40

0.91 1.65

Processing gains

2.21 2.23 2.23 2.23 2.23 2.23

0.03 1.32

Total non-OPEC supply

57.69 58.56 58.48 58.38 59.13 58.64

0.94 1.63

Previous estimate

57.80 58.61 58.54 58.55 59.50 58.80

1.00 0.00

Revision

-0.10 -0.05 -0.07 -0.18 -0.37 -0.17

-0.06 1.63

Note: * 2018 = Forecast.

Source: OPEC Secretariat.

Change 2018/17