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World Oil Supply

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – October 2017

43

World Oil Supply

World oil supply in September was revised up by 0.41 mb/d m-o-m from the previous MOMR to average

96.50 mb/d, representing an increase of 1.08 mb/d y-o-y.

Non-OPEC oil supply in September was up by 0.31 mb/d m-o-m to average 57.65 mb/d and is now

projected to grow by 0.68 mb/d y-o-y in 2017 to average 57.69 mb/d, representing a downward revision of

0.10 mb/d from last month’s report. While production in the FSU, OECD Americas and other Asia was

revised down by a total 0.14 mb/d, oil supply in OECD Europe and Africa was revised up by 0.03 mb/d and

0.01 mb/d respectively. The non-OPEC oil supply forecast in 2018 was also revised downward by 0.06 mb/d

to average 58.64 mb/d, indicating growth of 0.94 mb/d y-o-y.

OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids production averaged 6.31 mb/d in 2017, an increase of 0.17 mb/d

y-o-y. In 2018, production is forecast to grow by 0.18 mb/d to average 6.49 mb/d.

In September 2017, OPEC crude oil production increased by 88 tb/d, according to secondary sources, to

average 32.75 mb/d.

Non-OPEC oil supply highlights in 2017

The forecast for non-OPEC supply growth for 2017

has been revised downward by 0.10 mb/d since last

month’s MOMR to 0.68 mb/d, thereby averaging

57.69 mb/d. While the supply forecast for the UK,

Colombia and Africa others has marginally

improved, the expected growth in the US, Mexico,

Brazil, Russia and Chad has been adjusted down.

Non-OPEC preliminary oil supply in September

rose by 0.31 mb/d m-o-m, mainly in the US,

Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Brazil and the UK to

average 57.65 mb/d.

The US remains the key driver of non-OPEC supply

growth, adding 0.60 mb/d to non-OPEC production

in 2017. Brazil was the second largest contributor,

adding 0.21 mb/d, followed by Canada, Kazakhstan

and Ghana, which added 0.19 mb/d, 0.18 mb/d and

0.07 mb/d, respectively. Output in Mexico, China,

Azerbaijan, Colombia, Russia and Oman saw

declines in 2017.

Graph 5 - 1:Revisions in annual changes of 2017*

for selected countries

-0.08

-0.03

-0.02

0.00

0.01

0.01

0.02

0.03

-0.10

-0.05

0.00

0.05

Russia

Brazil

US

Brunei

Congo

Azerbaijan

Colombia

UK

mb/d

Note: * 2017 = Forecast.

Source: OPEC Secretariat.