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World Oil Demand

38

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – October 2017

Non-OECD

Based on the latest available data, oil demand growth in

non-OECD regions

was adjusted lower by around

25 tb/d in 2017 despite some upward revisions, for example, in China by around 30 tb/d on average for 2017.

In Other Asia, oil demand growth was adjusted lower by 0.1 mb/d in 3Q17, mainly reflecting slower-than-

expected oil demand development in India as heavy rain reduced transportation fuel demand and

uncertainties around the Goods and Services Tax (GST) programme hindered oil demand growth.

The Middle East was also revised lower, by 50 tb/d in 2Q17, due to slower-than-expected oil demand growth

data in 2Q17 from various countries in the region.

In the FSU, 2018 oil demand growth data was adjusted higher by 15 tb/d mainly to reflect better economic

projections as compared to last month.

In China, the upward revision by 30 tb/d in 3Q17 was due to better than expected demand from the

petrochemical and transportation sectors in the country.

China

According to the latest data, August 2017

Chinese oil demand

registered growth of around 0.34 mb/d y-o-y

with total demand pegged at 11.5 mb/d. Increasing LPG requirements for the petrochemical industry in

combination with rising jet fuel and gasoline consumption in the transportation sector saw most of the gains.

LPG demand growth exceeded 0.11 mb/d y-o-y with total consumption recording 1.64 mb/d as propane

dehydrogenations capacities (PDH) continue to expand. Chinese PDH capacity is projected to reach

3 million tonnes per year (mt/y) in 2017 with the Dongguan Juzhengyuan (0.9 mt/y), Fujian Meide (0.66 mt/y)

and Jiangsu Haili (0.51 mt/y) projects starting late this year, supporting LPG demand towards the end of the

year.

Graph 4 - 7: Chinese apparent oil demand,

y-o-y change

Graph 4 - 8: Chinese diesel oil and gasoline

demand, y-o-y change

Gasoline demand inched up by 62 tb/d y-o-y. Vehicle sales data now suggests healthy gains, most notably in

the Sport Utility Vehicle (SUV) category. According to statistics of

the China Association of Automobile

Manufacturers (CAAM)

, in August the sales of passenger cars witnessed an increase of around 4% y-o-y

with SUV sales adding around 18% y-o-y.

Jet/kerosene total consumption is now pegged at 0.71 mb/d, up by 36 tb/d y-o-y, propelled by an uplift in

domestic travel in the country. According to the China Air Transport Association, air passenger travel

increased by more than 6% on average for the first seven months of this year as compared to the same

period last year.

-500

-250

0

250

500

750

1,000

-500

-250

0

250

500

750

1,000

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

tb/d

tb/d

Historical range

Historical average

2016

2017

Sources: Argus Global Markets, China OGP (Xinhua News

Agency), Facts Global Energy, JODI, National Bureau of

Statistics of China and OPEC Secretariat.

-400

-200

0

200

400

Aug 16

Sep 16

Oct 16

Nov 16

Dec 16

Jan 17

Feb 17

Mar 17

Apr 17

May 17

Jun 17

Jul 17

Aug 17

tb/d

Gasoline

Diesel oil

Sources: Facts Global Energy, China OGP (Xinhua News

Agency), Argus Global Markets, JODI, National Bureau of

Statistics, China and OPEC Secretariat.