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World Oil Demand

34

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – October 2017

OECD Americas

Graph 4 - 1: OECD Americas oil demand,

y-o-y change

Graph 4 - 2: US gasoline demand,

y-o-y change

US

Following bullish oil demand growth during May and June 2017, the latest available monthly data implies

US oil demand

growth for July 2017 at 0.26 mb/d or 1.3% y-o-y. Distillates overwhelmingly account for most

of the growth in oil requirements, supported by the continued expansion of industrial activities, as well as

LPG intended for the petrochemical industry. Gasoline, jet/kerosene and naphtha demand remained broadly

flat compared to the same month in 2016, while residual fuel oil requirements fell sharply y-o-y as a result of

fuel substitution.

The surprisingly flat gasoline demand in July 2017 correlated with slightly declining car sales and a only mild

growth in mileage driven. Nevertheless, gasoline demand is expected to return to growth, constituting one of

the main drivers behind US oil demand growth for the remainder of 2017 and 2018. These expectations are

in line with an expanding US vehicle market, particularly for larger vehicles.

Seven months into 2017, US oil demand is higher by around 0.2 mb/d as compared to the same period last

year. The first seven months of 2017 have seen growing demand for all the main petroleum categories with

the exception of gasoline, which remained flat y-o-y. Growth was particularly strong for LPG, naphtha,

jet/kerosene and distillates requirements. August 2017 figures, which are based on preliminary weekly data,

show an increase of around 2.1% y-o-y, with the continuing rise in LPG, naphtha, distillates and jet/kerosene

requirements being partly offset by disappointing gasoline demand. September 2017 preliminary data

indicated another solid month in US oil demand for the main petroleum product categories, with distillates,

gasoline and jet/kerosene being the leading products in the last month of the traditional summer holiday

season. As a result of these factors, US oil demand is projected to remain strong throughout the remainder

of 2017, with industrial and – to a lesser extent – transportation fuels, dominating the implied growth share.

The US is projected to remain the main contributor to anticipated OECD oil demand growth during 2018.

-1,500

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

-1,500

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

tb/d

tb/d

Historical range

Historical average

2016

2017

Sources: National, Joint Organisations Data Initiative and

OPEC Secretariat.

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

Jul 16

Aug 16

Sep 16

Oct 16

Nov 16

Dec 16

Jan 17

Feb 17

Mar 17

Apr 17

May 17

Jun 17

Jul 17

tb/d

Source: US Energy Information Administration.