OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – October 2017
The Standard Bank
PMI suggests a slowdown in economic growth in 3Q17. The economy
grew by its fastest pace since 3Q15 in 2Q17. Growth stood at 0.8% y-o-y, up from 0.2% in the previous
quarter. The PMI reading of September dropped to 48.5 from 49.8 in August. The survey showed a decline in
output for the sixth consecutive month amid contractions in new orders received by the private sector.
Moreover, the rate of contraction was the fastest since April 2016. As a result, employment in the private
sector dropped for the first time in three months and by the highest rate in 17 months. Reflecting a less
optimistic outlook for the near future, inventories decreased, together with input purchases which dropped
four times in the past five months.
, the pound slightly appreciated for the third month in a row in September. It appreciated by 0.6%
m-o-m against the US dollar in September, accumulating an overall 2.6% appreciation during July-
September. The pound had earlier lost nearly 95% of its value against the US dollar during November 2016
through April 2017. Inflation continued posting a reading higher than 30% for the seventh consecutive month
in August and is expected to rise further in the coming months due to the recent reduction in subsidies for
some fuel/energy items and public services. The recession in the country’s non-oil private sector continued in
September, though firms showed more optimistic views for the coming year. The Emirates NBD Egypt PMI
dropped to 47.4 in September after registering 48.9 in August, due to a decline in new export orders for the
first time in six months, in addition to a fall in total new orders and output, which dropped at a faster rate
compared to August.
, GDP expanded by 1.3% y-o-y in 2Q17 from 1.2% in the previous quarter. Government
consumption sharply increased by 4.2% y-o-y in 2Q17, up from 2.6% in the first three months of 2017. This
also represents the largest increase in government consumption since 4Q15. Household consumption
growth was rather flat in 2Q17, while GFCF showed its first expansion since 3Q15. Household consumption
grew by 1.1% y-o-y in 2Q17. With regard to trade, on the other hand, exports declined by 1.7% y-o-y in
2Q17, registering the fourth consecutive quarter of contraction, whereas imports rose by 3.7% y-o-y over the
same period, following a streak of seven consecutive quarters of contraction.
, growth in GDP slowed from 4.0% y-o-y in 1Q17 to 3.4% in 2Q17. This was mainly a
result of slower growth in government consumption and exports, whereas changes in household
consumption, GFCF and imports were supportive. Government consumption posted a 1.8% y-o-y expansion
in 2Q17, down slightly from 2.8% in the previous quarter. Exports grew by 3.9% y-o-y in 2Q17, nearly half
the pace registered in 1Q17. Household consumption, on the other hand, slightly expanded from 3.7% y-o-y
in 1Q17 to 3.8% in 2Q17, while the growth of imports showed a notable slowdown to 2.9% in 2Q17 from
5.3% in the previous quarter. The IHS Markit Czech Republic Manufacturing reading of September stood at a
five-month high of 56.6, up from August’s 54.9, due to a faster expansion in production and new orders.