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World Economy

30

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – October 2017

Inflation in the

United Arab Emirates

(UAE) eased from nearly 3.0% y-o-y in March to 1.2% y-o-y in July. In

June, inflation stood at 2.0% y-o-y. The decrease in the prices of transportation, textiles and clothing,

together with housing, water, electricity and gas, alongside furniture and household goods, was behind the

fall in the overall index. The subcategory of housing, water, electricity and gas showed a decline from 1.0%

y-o-y in June to 0.9% y-o-y in July. The prices of textiles and clothing witnessed a drop of 1.2% y-o-y in July

from an increase of 1.0% a month earlier. Transportation prices also declined by 1.1% y-o-y in July vs. an

increase of 5.1% in June. Most other categories of consumer prices were largely stable in July.

Expansion in the country’s non-oil private sector continued in September, though at a slightly slower pace,

following August’s quickest pace of expansion since February 2015, according to the Emirates NBD UAE

PMI. The index stood at 55.1 in September, down slightly from 57.3 in August. The survey showed a sharp

expansion in output and new business. The average reading of the index for 3Q17 was the strongest in two

years, highlighting solid domestic demand for goods and services produced in the country’s non-oil private

sector and robust economic growth in 3Q17. In August, new export orders increased for the first time in three

months. However, new export orders contracted in September and most of the new orders inflow came from

the domestic market.

Graph 3 - 36: UAE manufacturing PMIs

Graph 3 - 37: UAE inflation

Other Asia

In

Indonesia

, consumer price inflation posted a 3.7% y-o-y increase in September, which is down slightly

from a 3.8% y-o-y increase in August and the lowest inflation rate in six months. The Bank of Indonesia’s

policy rate was lowered to 4.25% in September from 4.50% a month earlier. Trade was supportive to growth

in 2Q17 as the net exports of goods and services climbed by more than 36% y-o-y. While exports increased

by 3.4% y-o-y in 2Q17, imports posted a slow increase of only 0.6% y-o-y. GDP registered growth of 5.0%

y-o-y in 2Q17, similar to 1Q17. GFCF accelerated to 5.4% y-o-y growth in 2Q17, up from 4.8% in 1Q17. The

growth of household consumption expenditure was unchanged from 1Q17 at nearly 5.0%. However, general

government consumption expenditure dropped by 1.9% y-o-y in 2Q17, compared to a 2.7% growth in the

previous quarter.

In the

Philippines

, GDP growth slightly accelerated in 2Q17 compared to 1Q17. GDP grew by 6.5% y-o-y in

2Q17, up slightly from 6.4% in the previous quarter. Government consumption expenditure had a notable

increase of 7.1% y-o-y, up significantly from 0.2% in the previous quarter. This represents the fastest pace of

growth since 2Q16. Private consumption expenditure, on the other hand, slightly increased to 5.9% y-o-y

growth in 2Q17 from 5.8% in 1Q17. Expansion in GFCF also slowed from 14.7% y-o-y in 1Q17 to 9.4% in

2Q17. Changes in imports were minor, rising marginally from 18.6% y-o-y in 1Q17 to 18.7% in 2Q17. Growth

in exports, however, dropped slightly from 20.3% y-o-y in 1Q17 to 19.8% in 2Q17.

55.1

45

50

55

60

Sep 15

Nov 15

Jan 16

Mar 16

May 16

Jul 16

Sep 16

Nov 16

Jan 17

Mar 17

May 17

Jul 17

Sep 17

Index

Sources: Emirates NBD, IHS Markit and Haver Analytics.

1.2

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Jul 15

Sep 15

Nov 15

Jan 16

Mar 16

May 16

Jul 16

Sep 16

Nov 16

Jan 17

Mar 17

May 17

Jul 17

Sources: General Authority for Statistics and Haver Analytics.

% change y-o-y