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World Economy

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – October 2017

29

OPEC Member Countries

Inflation in

Saudi Arabia

posted a decline of 0.1% in August, from a decline of 0.3% y-o-y in July. The

country has maintained a notable easing of inflation since the beginning of the year due to the base-line

effect, which could be a supporting factor for private consumption. The non-oil private sector has continued

growing at a strong pace in September. The Emirates NBD Saudi Arabia PMI of September registered 55.5

in September, from 55.8 in the previous month, suggesting continued solid improvements in the business

conditions of the non-oil private sector. Employment showed a slight increase last month. The index average

of 1H17 stood at 56.0, highlighting a higher rate of growth compared with the first six months of 2016.

In 3Q17, the index was largely stable at an average of nearly 55.7.

Graph 3 - 32: Saudi Arabia manufacturing PMIs

Graph 3 - 33: Saudi Arabia inflation

The economy of

Nigeria

came out of recession in 2Q17 following five quarters of downturn. The economy

registered 0.6% y-o-y growth in 2Q17, up slightly from a contraction of 0.5% y-o-y in the previous quarter,

according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Inflation has been on an easing trend since the beginning of

the year, posting 16.0% y-o-y in August vs. 18.7% in January. The naira was largely stable since the

depreciation of 50% during June–August 2016. It appreciated slightly by 0.1% m-o-m in August.

On another positive note, Nigeria’s private sector showed strong growth in September as indicated by

Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI

.

The index registered 54.9 in September, fractionally lower than August’s

55.0. The survey showed strong growth in output and new orders alongside an increase in output price

inflation.

Graph 3 - 34: Nigeria manufacturing PMIs

Graph 3 - 35: Nigeria inflation

55.5

45

50

55

60

Sep 15

Nov 15

Jan 16

Mar 16

May 16

Jul 16

Sep 16

Nov 16

Jan 17

Mar 17

May 17

Jul 17

Sep 17

Index

Sources: Emirates NBD, IHS Markit and Haver Analytics.

-0.1

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

Aug 15

Oct 15

Dec 15

Feb 16

Apr 16

Jun 16

Aug 16

Oct 16

Dec 16

Feb 17

Apr 17

Jun 17

Aug 17

Sources: General Authority for Statistics and Haver Analytics.

% change y-o-y

54.9

45

50

55

60

Sep 15

Nov 15

Jan 16

Mar 16

May 16

Jul 16

Sep 16

Nov 16

Jan 17

Mar 17

May 17

Jul 17

Sep 17

Index

Sources: IHS Markit, Stanbic IBTC Bank and Haver Analytics.

16.0

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Aug 15

Oct 15

Dec 15

Feb 16

Apr 16

Jun 16

Aug 16

Oct 16

Dec 16

Feb 17

Apr 17

Jun 17

Aug 17

Sources: National Bureau of Statistics and Haver Analytics.

% change y-o-y