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World Economy

22

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – October 2017

Graph 3 - 13: Russian inflation vs. interest rate

Graph 3 - 14: Russian PMIs

The IHS Markit Russia

manufacturing PMI

continued showing improvements in the sector’s business

conditions in September due to solid growth in new orders and production. The survey highlighted the first

increase in exports since August 2013. The index slightly increased to 51.9 in September from 51.6 in

August. The index survey showed the first increase in job creation in the sector in seven months. The

manufacturing PMI data for 3Q17 suggests a stronger growth rate compared to 2Q17.

Industrial

production

rose for the sixth consecutive month, rising by 1.5% y-o-y in August. The

services sector

activity PMI suggests solid growth in September, highlighting the tenth consecutive month of improvements.

The index stood at 55.2 in September, up from 54.2 in the previous month. The survey highlighted

acceleration in activity and new orders, together with strong growth in employment. For the fifth month in a

row,

retail sales

were increasing in August. The rate of increase was 1.9% y-o-y, which represents the

fastest rate of growth in retail sales since December 2014.

Graph 3 - 15: Russian industrial production

Graph 3 - 16: Russian retail sales

Taking into account the Russian economy’s broad-based improvements noted since the beginning of the

year (especially in 2Q17 and 3Q17), and its positive carry over to next year, with presidential elections

scheduled to take place in March 2018 and the World Cup in mid-2018, Russia’s

GDP

is anticipated to grow

by 1.8% in 2017 and by 1.6% in 2018, y-o-y.

3.0

8.5

2

4

6

8

10

12

Sep 16

Oct 16

Nov 16

Dec 16

Jan 17

Feb 17

Mar 17

Apr 17

May 17

Jun 17

Jul 17

Aug 17

Sep 17

%

Sources: Federal State Statistics Service, Central Bank of

Russia and Haver Analytics.

Inflation rate

Interest rate

51.9

55.2

48

50

52

54

56

58

60

Sep 16

Oct 16

Nov 16

Dec 16

Jan 17

Feb 17

Mar 17

Apr 17

May 17

Jun 17

Jul 17

Aug 17

Sep 17

Index

Sources: IHS Markit and Haver Analytics.

Services PMI

Manufacturing PMI

1.5

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

Aug 16

Sep 16

Oct 16

Nov 16

Dec 16

Jan 17

Feb 17

Mar 17

Apr 17

May 17

Jun 17

Jul 17

Aug 17

% change y-o-y

Sources: Federal State Statistics Service and Haver Analytics.

1.9

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Aug 16

Sep 16

Oct 16

Nov 16

Dec 16

Jan 17

Feb 17

Mar 17

Apr 17

May 17

Jun 17

Jul 17

Aug 17

% change y-o-y

Sources: Federal State Statistics Service and Haver Analytics.