OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – October 2017
continued its quick easing trend, reaching its lowest level ever at 1.6% y-o-y in September. This
represents a quick fall in inflation from August’s 1.7%. To catch up with rapidly declining inflation, the central
bank lowered its benchmark
by a full 10 pp in September, which now stands at 8.25%. The
posted its fourth back-to-back fall in August, registering 12.6% vs. 12.8% in July.
The consumer confidence index improved in September to 84.3 from August’s 81.4.
In September 2017, business conditions in the
continued to improve due to an
ongoing production increase that reflects a continued rise in factory orders. Manufacturing production rose in
September for the seventh consecutive month and by the fastest rate since May. The IHS Markit Brazil
Manufacturing PMI stood unchanged at 50.9 in September.
has returned to growth in September as suggested by the IHS Markit Brazil Services
PMI Business Activity Index which registered 50.7, up from 49.0 in August. The survey showed that output
grew in September for the first time in five months, while new orders increased by the highest rate since
April. While employment in the services sector continued to decrease in September, the survey showed that
the pace of contraction was at its weakest in nearly two and a half years.
Graph 3 - 11: Brazilian manufacturing and
Graph 3 - 12: Brazilian consumer confidence
Household consumption and investment is anticipated to pick up next year due to low inflation and reduced
is expected to grow by 0.5% in 2017 and by 1.5% in 2018.
Data published by Russia’s Federal Statistics Office showed that
the main drivers behind the strong GDP growth posted in 2Q17.
posted growth of 2.5% y-o-y in 2Q17,
up from 0.5% growth in the previous quarter. This represents the fastest rate of growth since 3Q12. Growth
of household consumption accelerated to 4.4% y-o-y in 2Q17, up from 2.7% in the previous quarter. This
also represents the highest rate of growth since 3Q13. GFCF rose by 6.3% y-o-y in 2Q17, up from a 2.3%
rise in 1Q17, its highest since 1Q12. Trade, on the other hand, offset the final GDP growth figure due to a
sharp increase in imports. While exports increased by 3.3% y-o-y in 2Q17, imports rose by more than 20%
over the same period, resulting in a drop in net exports of nearly 56% y-o-y.
appreciated by an average of 3.2% m-o-m in September, after being largely stable in August.
eased in September to 3.0% y-o-y from August’s 3.3%. The central bank lowered its benchmark
interest rate by five percentage points to 8.5% in September.
Sources: IHS Markit and Haver Analytics.
Sources: Fundação Getúlio Vargas and Haver Analytics.