Table of Contents Table of Contents
Previous Page  28 / 106 Next Page
Information
Show Menu
Previous Page 28 / 106 Next Page
Page Background

World Economy

20

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – October 2017

Non-OECD

BRICs

Table 3 - 2: Summary of macroeconomic performance of BRIC countries, 2017-2018*

Brazil

Trade

was a supportive factor behind the Brazilian economy’s return to growth in 2Q17 as exports increased

2.5% and imports dropped 3.3% y-o-y. Moreover, the first acceleration in private consumption in more than

two years lent notable momentum to GDP growth. Private consumption grew by 0.7% y-o-y in 2Q17 vs.

a 1.9% y-o-y contraction in the previous quarter. The Brazilian economy was in contraction since 1Q14

before moving out of recession in 2Q17 with growth of 0.3% y-o-y. On the other hand, efforts to streamline

government consumption resulted in a 2.4% y-o-y decline in government expenditure in 2Q17. Gross Fixed

Capital Formation (GFCF) also declined by 6.5% y-o-y in 2Q17 after a contraction of 3.7% in the previous

quarter.

The country’s

trade surplus

widened in September to $5.2 billion, representing a 36.8% increase from a

year earlier.

Exports

increased 18.1% y-o-y, supported by primary goods which increased by 30.2%.

Manufactured products also grew by 12.4% in September. For the first half of 2017, the trade surplus

increased by more than 53%, reaching $107.7 billion due to a record harvest of soy and higher prices for a

number of main exports like iron ore, soy and oil.

In August, exports to China, Brazil’s top trading partner, increased around 41% y-o-y.

Imports

, on the other

hand, grew at lower rate of 8.0% y-o-y in August.

Graph 3 - 9: Brazilian inflation vs. Interest rate

Graph 3 - 10: Brazilian unemployment rate

2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018

Brazil

0.5

1.5

3.6

4.0 -11.6 -28.3

-8.1

-7.1 78.4 84.4

Russia

1.8

1.6

4.1

4.0 54.6 36.0

-2.1

-1.3 11.8 12.7

India

6.9

7.5

3.3

4.3 -26.1 -29.6

-3.2

-3.2 50.1 49.0

China

6.7

6.3

1.5

1.8 121.1 169.8

-3.9

-4.4 18.6 21.7

Sources: Consensus Economics, Economic Intelligence Unit, Financial Times, OPEC Secretariat and Oxford.

Note: * 2017 and 2018 = Forecast.

GDP growth rate

Consumer price

index,

% change y-o-y

Current account

balance, US$ bn

Government

fiscal balance,

% of GDP

Net public debt,

% of GDP

1.63

8.25

0

5

10

15

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Sep 16

Oct 16

Nov 16

Dec 16

Jan 17

Feb 17

Mar 17

Apr 17

May 17

Jun 17

Jul 17

Aug 17

Sep 17

National consumer price index (LHS)

Selic rate (RHS)

Sources: Banco Central do Brasil, Instituto Brasileiro de

Geografia e Estatística and Haver Analytics.

% change y-o-y

% per annum

12.6

11.0

11.5

12.0

12.5

13.0

13.5

14.0

Aug 16

Sep 16

Oct 16

Nov 16

Dec 16

Jan 17

Feb 17

Mar 17

Apr 17

May 17

Jun 17

Jul 17

Aug 17

%

Sources: Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística and

Trading Economics.