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Crude Oil Price Movements

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – October 2017

3

Table 1 - 1: OPEC Reference Basket and selected crudes, US$/b

The oil futures market

Oil futures

surged further in September, with

ICE Brent

gaining more than 7% and averaging above the

$55/b level, supported greatly by increasing evidence that the oil market is heading toward rebalancing,

geopolitical tensions in Iraq’s Kurdistan region and lower distillate stocks ahead of the winter season.

Earlier in the month, US oil futures edged higher as oil refineries and pipelines in the USGC slowly resumed

activity as damage by Hurricane Harvey to the oil infrastructure in the USGC appeared less extensive than

some had feared. Prices were also supported by a rally in the oil product markets, with US gasoline futures

hitting a two-year high above $2/gal, buoyed by fears of a fuel shortage just days ahead of the Labour Day

weekend that typically brings a surge in driving. Hurricane Harvey, which brought record flooding to the US

oil heartland of Texas, had paralysed at least 4.4 mb/d of refining capacity.

Oil prices rose further as strong global refining margins and the reopening of USGC refineries provided a

more bullish outlook after sharp drops due to the hurricane. A few days later, crude oil futures tumbled on

worries that energy demand would be hit hard as Hurricane Irma, the second major hurricane to approach

the US in two weeks, one of the most powerful storms in a century, headed toward Florida and the

Southeast. Oil prices rebounded with Brent closing at a five-month high, as the dollar weakened and after a

string of reports forecast the market would tighten further as fuel demand increased.

Aug 17 Sep 17

Sep/Aug

%

2016

2017

Basket

49.60

53.44

3.84

7.7

38.54

50.13

Arab Light

49.63

53.29

3.66

7.4

38.73

50.24

Basrah Light

49.26

53.03

3.77

7.7

37.25

49.57

Bonny Light

51.69

56.55

4.86

9.4

42.09

52.12

Es Sider

50.31

55.07

4.76

9.5

40.91

50.34

Girassol

52.31

56.83

4.52

8.6

41.78

52.03

Iran Heavy

48.70

52.27

3.57

7.3

37.14

49.60

Kuwait Export

48.70

52.23

3.53

7.2

36.90

49.39

Qatar Marine

49.71

52.91

3.20

6.4

39.24

50.75

Merey

45.38

49.13

3.75

8.3

31.24

45.47

Murban

51.51

54.94

3.43

6.7

42.79

52.68

Oriente

47.45

51.30

3.85

8.1

36.16

47.52

Rabi Light

50.69

55.10

4.41

8.7

40.84

50.79

Sahara Blend

51.31

56.32

5.01

9.8

42.57

51.55

Zafiro

51.67

56.57

4.90

9.5

40.56

51.55

Other Crudes

Dated Brent

51.66

56.07

4.41

8.5

41.91

51.81

Dubai

50.24

53.51

3.27

6.5

39.14

51.02

Isthmus

52.92

55.20

2.28

4.3

39.96

52.83

LLS

51.08

54.68

3.60

7.0

43.14

51.74

Mars

47.91

51.57

3.66

7.6

38.12

48.30

Minas

45.91

49.20

3.29

7.2

39.79

47.24

Urals

51.30

54.89

3.59

7.0

40.23

50.72

WTI

48.03

49.71

1.68

3.5

41.35

49.33

Differentials

Brent/WTI

3.63

6.36

2.73

-

0.56

2.48

Brent/LLS

0.58

1.39

0.81

-

-1.23

0.08

Brent/Dubai

1.42

2.56

1.14

-

2.77

0.79

Year-to-date

Sources: Argus Media, Direct Communication, OPEC Secretariat and Platts.

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