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Balance of Supply and Demand

82

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – August 2017

Balance of Supply and Demand

Demand for OPEC crude in 2017 is estimated at 32.4 mb/d, which is 0.4 mb/d higher than 2016 level.

In 2018, the demand for OPEC crude is projected at 32.4 mb/d, almost at the same level as 2017.

Balance of supply and demand in 2017

Demand for OPEC crude for 2017

was revised up by 0.2 mb/d from the previous report driven mainly by

the upward revision in demand. Within the quarters, the first quarter was revised down by 0.1 mb/d, while the

second, third and fourth quarters were revised up by 0.4 mb/d, 0.1 mb/d and 0.2 mb/d, respectively. Demand

for OPEC crude stood at 32.4 mb/d, representing an increase of 0.4 mb/d from 2016 level. The third and

fourth quarter 2017 are expected to reach 33.4 mb/d and 33.0 mb/d respectively.

Compared to the same quarters of last year, the first and the second quarters increased by 0.9 mb/d and

0.2 mb/d, respectively. The third and fourth quarters are expected to grew by 0.2 mb/d and 0.4 mb/d,

respectively.

Table 10 - 1: Supply/demand balance for 2017*, mb/d

Balance of supply and demand in 2018

Demand for OPEC crude for 2018

was revised up by 0.2 mb/d from the previous month. Within the

quarters, the first quarter remained unchanged, while the second, third and fourth quarters were revised up

by 0.4 mb/d, 0.1 mb/d and 0.3 mb/d, respectively. The demand for OPEC crude is projected at 32.4 mb/d,

almost at the same level as 2017.

Compared to the same quarters in 2017, the first quarter is expected to increase by 0.4 mb/d, while all other

quarters are projected to decline.

Change

2016 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 2017 2017/16

(a) World oil demand

95.12 95.39 95.65 97.28 97.63 96.49 1.37

Non-OPEC supply

56.99 57.89 57.49 57.49 58.19 57.77 0.78

OPEC NGLs and non-conventionals

6.14 6.20 6.26 6.35 6.42 6.31 0.17

(b) Total non-OPEC supply and OPEC NGLs 63.13 64.10 63.75 63.84 64.60 64.07 0.94

Difference (a-b)

31.99 31.29 31.91 33.45 33.03 32.42 0.43

OPEC crude oil production

32.66 32.13 32.29

Balance

0.66 0.85 0.39

Note: * 2017 = Forecast.

Totals may not add up due to independent rounding.

Source: OPEC Secretariat.