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World Oil Supply

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – August 2017

53

Graph 5 - 24: Kazakhstan quarterly oil supply,

2016-2018

Graph 5 - 25: China quarterly oil supply,

2016-2018

China

China’s oil supply

in 2017 has been revised up by 10 tb/d to average 3.98 mb/d following an upward

revision in production by 31 tb/d in the 2Q17. As a result, supply is now expected to decline by 0.12 mb/d

over the previous year. China’s oil output in June 2017 was up by 0.12 mb/d m-o-m to average 4.09 mb/d,

lower by 60 tb/d, y-o-y. China’s total liquids supply in 1Q17 and 2Q17 was pegged at 4.02 mb/d and it is

expected that output in 2H17 will decline by 90 tb/d compared to 1H17, and average 3.93 mb/d for the year.

For 2018, following the higher base in 2017, it is expected that the annual decline will be even higher at

0.17 mb/d, with output averaging 3.81 mb/d.

OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils

The forecast for

OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids

in 2017 has been left unchanged averaging

6.3 mb/d, representing growth of 0.17 mb/d. This follows last month’s upward revision of 90 tb/d following

Equatorial Guinea joining OPEC. In 2018, due to the number of planned projects, a growth of 0.18 mb/d

y-o-y is anticipated, with average output at 6.22 mb/d. These projects are expected to be mainly in IR Iran

and Saudi Arabia.

Table 5 - 7: OPEC NGLs + non-conventional oils, 2015-2018*, mb/d

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

mb/d

2016 2017 (Forecast)

2018 (Forecast)

Source: OPEC Secretariat.

3.50

3.75

4.00

4.25

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

mb/d

2016 2017 (Forecast)

2018 (Forecast)

Source: OPEC Secretariat.

Change

Change

Change

2015 2016

16/15 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 2017

17/16 2018 18/17

Total OPEC 6.04 6.14

0.10 6.20 6.26 6.35 6.42

6.31

0.17

6.49

0.18

Note: * 2017 and 2018 = Forecast.

Source: OPEC Secretariat.