Table of Contents Table of Contents
Previous Page  60 / 111 Next Page
Information
Show Menu
Previous Page 60 / 111 Next Page
Page Background

World Oil Supply

52

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – August 2017

Graph 5 - 22: FSU quarterly oil supply,

2016-2018

Graph 5 - 23: Russia quarterly oil supply,

2016-2018

Russia

Russian crude and condensate output

in July was reported at the same level of June’s production at

10.95 mb/d, according to preliminary energy ministry data released in the first week of August. Based on the

historical production data for 1Q17 at 11.25 mb/d, the Russian preliminary oil production data for 2Q17 is

estimated at 11.23 mb/d thus indicating an upward revision of 152 tb/d. In the meantime, the forecast for the

3Q17, 4Q17 and 1Q18 remains unchanged at 10.98 mb/d in line with the OPEC and non-OPEC cooperation.

Some of the domestic companies are operating key projects as to enhance new production and to

compensate heavy declines in brown fields. These projects were sanctioned before the Russian agreement

with OPEC and were implemented as scheduled. For example, Rosneft increased its investment into the

production of Yuganskneftegaz by 42%, $2.2 billion last year. Hence, crude oil output at Rosneft’s Key West

Siberian subsidiary, Yuganskneftegaz, reached a 30-year high in July, hitting in 1H17 1.35 mb/d, the highest

level since 1986 and 2.2% higher than last year’s at 1.28 mb/d. It is expected that the country’s 2017 liquids

production (including NGLs) will average 11.11 mb/d, indicating a growth of 30 tb/d, y-o-y. For 2018,

according to the extension of the Declaration of Cooperation with OPEC for production adjustment

agreement, Russian production is expected to maintain its production adjustment up to until 1Q18, thus

increasing its oil supply by 0.13 mb/d to average 11.24 mb/d for the year.

Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan’s crude oil and NGLs output

was stagnant at 1.48 mb/d and 0.27 mb/d during June and July

2017, respectively, so total liquids output was pegged at 1.75 mb/d. Our forecast based on non-OPEC

voluntary production adjustment has been estimated at 1.68 mb/d until the end of 1Q18. Kazakhstan’s oil

supply in 1Q17 and 2Q17 following Kashagan’s ramp-up was reported at 1.72 mb/d and 1.73 mb/d,

respectively. The Kashagan field, which was brought on-stream in late September and is now ramping up to

its initial target of 200 tb/d before a gas injection project starts, is due to reach a plateau of 360 tb/d by the

end of 2018. Hence, the prediction for growth of 140 tb/d for this year to average 1.70 mb/d has not been

changed from the last

MOMR

. However, if the gas injection plan run on time, then the production will reach

to the level of 280 to 290 tb/d by the end of the year. If such, the annual growth for 2017 would be around

1.77 mb/d, 70 tb/d higher than expected for this year.

However, oil supply growth in Kazakhstan in 2018 is forecast at 90 tb/d, to average 1.79 mb/d, while in case

of higher base according to the above explanation, then a growth of 170 tb/d is anticipated for the next year

13.2

13.4

13.6

13.8

14.0

14.2

14.4

14.6

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

mb/d

2016 2017 (Forecast)

2018 (Forecast)

Source: OPEC Secretariat.

10.7

10.8

10.9

11.0

11.1

11.2

11.3

11.4

11.5

11.6

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

mb/d

2016 2017 (Forecast)

2018 (Forecast)

Source: OPEC Secretariat.