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World Oil Supply

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – August 2017

51

Brazil

Brazilian liquids supply

in 2Q17 was revised up by 11 tb/d following an increase of output in June by

20 tb/d m-o-m to average 3.35 mb/d. Preliminary liquids output in July indicates the same level of the

production in June despite increasing crude oil output by 24 tb/d to total 2.69 mb/d. Through an increase in

crude oil output in June of 13 tb/d, total liquids production increased to 3.35 mb/d, with 2.67 mb/d from crude

oil, 0.12 mb/d from NGLs and 0.57 m/d from biofuels. Oil production in the pre-salt horizon, following the

ramp up to 0.1 mb/d capacity of the Cidade De Angra Dos Reis FPSO as well as the start-up of the P-66 unit

in Lula South, reached around 1.3 mb/d. It is also expected that production will start-up in July. Growth of

0.24 mb/d is forecast in Brazil for 2017 to reach an average of 3.38 mb/d. The growth is expected to come

from production ramp ups in the Lapa field, Lula (the most growth in 2017), Parque das Baleia, Roncador-2,

Sapinhoa, Tartaruga Verde & Mestica, as well as the new Libra project. For 2018, Brazil’s total liquids supply

is expected to grow at a slower pace compared to 2017. Growth is estimated at 0.21 mb/d, with an output

average of 3.59 mb/d.

Graph 5 - 20: Brazil quarterly oil supply,

2016-2018

Graph 5 - 21: Colombia quarterly oil supply,

2016-2018

Africa

Africa’s oil supply

is projected to grow by 50 tb/d to average 1.87 mb/d in 2017 (excluding Equatorial

Guinea which joined OPEC on 25 May 2017). It is expected that oil production in 2017 will grow in Congo by

40 tb/d, to average 0.35 mb/d, Ghana by 70 tb/d, to average 0.16 mb/d, and Chad by 20 tb/d, to average

0.13 mb/d. Production in Egypt, the Sudans, and Africa other is anticipated to decline in 2017, while oil

output in South Africa is estimated to remain unchanged compared from a year earlier.

For 2018, oil supply in non-OPEC countries in Africa is expected to grow by 70 tb/d, mainly from Congo and

Ghana.

FSU

FSU’s oil supply

is estimated to grow by 0.11 mb/d in 2017 to average 13.97 mb/d, revised up by 38 tb/d

from the July

MOMR

. An upward revision of 38 tb/d was seen in Russia’s production growth in 2017.

For 2018, FSU oil supply was revised down by 40 tb/d due to a higher base in 2017 to average 14.13 mb/d

and is estimated to grow by 0.16 mb/d, mainly from Russia and Kazakhstan, while other countries in the

region will decline.

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

mb/d

2016 2017 (Forecast)

2018 (Forecast)

Source: OPEC Secretariat.

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

mb/d

2016 2017 (Forecast)

2018 (Forecast)

Source: OPEC Secretariat.