World Oil Supply
OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – August 2017
UK’s oil supply
is predicted to decline by 30 tb/d y-o-y to average 0.99 mb/d in 2017. Oil supply in May
2017 increased by 0.06 mb/d m-o-m to average 1.08 mb/d but the preliminary production data in June and
July indicates a decline of 0.09 mb/d and 0.15 mb/d compared to May. This is attributable to the
maintenance season beginning, which will peak in August. However, it is expected that oil supply in 2H17 will
be supported by new production from the 50 tb/d Kraken field which started up on 23 June and will peak at
full capacity next year. The UK’s crude oil production in May 2017 increased by 43 tb/d m-o-m, to average
0.94 mb/d, and NGLs added 12 tb/d, to total 0.13 mb/d. Oil supply in 1Q17 and 2Q17 was pegged at
1.06 mb/d and 1.04 mb/d, indicating declines of 30 tb/d and 10 tb/d compared to 1Q16 and 2Q16,
respectively. For 2018, it is expected that the UK’s oil supply will grow by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y to average
1.07 mb/d. The production ramp-ups in 2018 are expected to come from fields such as: Alma/Galia,
Britannia, Kraken, the Monarb redevelopment project, Ninian, Quad 201, Scoty/Crathes and Solan.
Expected growth of 80 tb/d in 2018 will also be maintained from the Greater Catcher and Greater Stella Area
Total oil production of developing countries
(DCs) is estimated to grow by 0.11 mb/d, y-o-y, to average
12.02 mb/d in 2017, remaining unchanged compared with the previous assessment. In July, there were
several minor upward and downward revisions, particularly in 2Q17, which often offset each other.
The preliminary supply data in July of 11.99 mb/d indicates a m-o-m growth of 82 tb/d, which is also 43 tb/d
higher than a year earlier. Oil production is expected to increase in Latin America by 0.15 mb/d to average
5.25 mb/d, mainly in Brazil, and in Africa, primarily in Ghana and Congo, by 0.05 mb/d to average 1.87 mb/d.
Oil supply in Other Asia and the Middle East, mainly in Oman, will decline by 0.04 mb/d and 0.05 mb/d to
average 3.66 mb/d (including Indonesia) and 1.23 mb/d, respectively.
In 2018, DC’s supply is forecast to grow by 0.10 mb/d y-o-y to average 12.12 mb/d, which is unchanged
compared to the last
. Oil production in Africa is expected to grow at a faster pace y-o-y (0.07 mb/d),
while growth in Latin America will be at slower pace (0.12 mb/d) to average 1.94 mb/d and 5.37 mb/d,
respectively. Oil supply in Other Asia and the Middle East will decline in the next year each by 0.05 mb/d to
3.62 mb/d and 1.18 mb/d, respectively.
Latin America’s oil supply
is estimated to increase by 0.15 mb/d to average 5.25 mb/d in 2017. This is
unchanged from the previous
. Latin America is the second-highest growth driver in 2017 among the
non-OPEC regions. Brazil is the only country in the region set to witness growth this year. Oil production in
Colombia is expected to decline by 60 tb/d, to average 0.84 mb/d. Colombia’s state-run oil company
Ecopetrol said the 485-mile-long Cano-Limon Covenas oil pipeline has been hit yet again by left-wing
terrorists, raising the tally for the year to 39 attacks. The latest occurred in northern Colombia in the
Santander North department bordering Venezuela. Declines are also forecast in Argentina (10 tb/d) to
average 0.67 mb/d, Trinidad and Tobago (10 tb/d), and Latin America others (20 tb/d).
For 2018, oil supply in the region is estimated to grow by 0.12 mb/d, mainly from Brazil, with average output
at 5.37 mb/d. In Argentina, a minor growth of 20 tb/d is anticipated for oil production in 2018 while in the rest
of Latin America, no production growth is predicted. It is expected that there will be a further y-o-y decline in
Colombia at about 0.08 mb/d, where the mature oil fields are in heavy decline and where no new fields are
expected to bring additional volumes on stream.