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World Oil Supply

48

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – August 2017

Graph 5 - 14: Canada production by crude type

Graph 5 - 15: Canada production by crude type,

y-o-y change

In 2018, Surmont phase 2 is expected to start up production and plateau at 118 tb/d in 2019, following a

peak output of 27 tb/d from phase 1 in 2017. The production ramp up of Syncrude in stages 1 and 2 of the

Mildred Lake and Auora project is also anticipated to add 47 tb/d in 2018, before plateauing at 427 tb/d in

2019. In 2018, production expansions also include the ramp up in Sunrise, MacKay River phase 1 operated

by PetroChina, Kearl phase 2, Horizon phase 3, Foster Creek phase F, Duvernay, Cold Lake phase 14-16,

Christian Lake phase 1F, the thermal project of Lloyd, as well as the start-up of the new project of Fort Hills

phase 1. It is anticipated that Canadian oil supply will grow by 0.17 mb/d to average 4.89 mb/d in 2018.

Canada’s oil rig count

Canada’s rig count

decreased by 3 units during the week ending 4 August to total 217 rigs, which is still up

137 units since 12 May and up by 95 units y-o-y. Oil-directed rigs shed 5 units to total 124 rigs, while gas-

directed rigs gained 2 units to reach 93 rigs.

Graph 5 - 16: Canada quarterly oil supply,

2016-2018

Graph 5 - 17: Mexico quarterly oil supply,

2016-2018

Mexico

Mexican liquids production

in 2017 is expected to decline by 0.17 mb/d to average 2.30 mb/d. This

expectation is unchanged from the previous

MOMR

. Liquids output in June declined by 10 tb/d m-o-m to

average 2.31 mb/d, and the breakdown shows that crude oil declined by 12 tb/d m-o-m to average

2.01 mb/d, which amounts to a decline of 0.19 mb/d y-o-y (8.86%). The annual decline rate of crude oil

0.8

1.3

1.8

2.3

2.8

3.3

Jul 11

Jan 12

Jul 12

Jan 13

Jul 13

Jan 14

Jul 14

Jan 15

Jul 15

Jan 16

Jul 16

Jan 17

Jul 17

mb/d

Synthetic crude + Crude bitumen

Conventional

Source: OPEC Secretariat.

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

Jul 11

Jan 12

Jul 12

Jan 13

Jul 13

Jan 14

Jul 14

Jan 15

Jul 15

Jan 16

Jul 16

Jan 17

Jul 17

mb/d

Conventional

Synthetic crude + Crude bitumen

Source: OPEC Secretariat.

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

mb/d

2016 2017 (Forecast)

2018 (Forecast)

Source: OPEC Secretariat.

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

mb/d

2016 2017 (Forecast)

2018 (Forecast)

Source: OPEC Secretariat.