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World Oil Supply

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – August 2017

43

Graph 5 - 6: Non-OPEC quarterly supply growth

OECD

Total

OECD oil supply in 2017

is expected to grow by 0.67 mb/d to average 25.47 mb/d. This was revised

down by 68 tb/d from the last

MOMR

. The estimated output in all quarters was changed compared to 2016,

with 1Q17 increasing by 0.10 mb/d and 2Q17 estimated to grow by 0.90 mb/d y-o-y. In 2017, oil supply of

OECD Americas is forecast to see an increase of 0.70 mb/d to average 21.27 mb/d, while OECD Europe and

OECD Asia Pacific will decline by 10 tb/d and 20 tb/d to average 3.80 mb/d and 0.41 mb/d, respectively.

On a regional and annual basis, growths of 0.86 mb/d, 0.08 mb/d and 0.04 mb/d are expected in

2018

for

OECD Americas, OECD Europe and OECD Asia Pacific, respectively.

Table 5 - 3: Non-OPEC supply forecast comparison in 2017* and 2018*, mb/d

0.78

1.10

-1

0

1

2

-1

0

1

2

3

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

2017 (Forecast)

2018 (Forecast)

mb/d

mb/d

OECD Americas

OECD Europe

OECD Asia Pacific

Total DCs

FSU ex. Russia

Russia

China

Non-OPEC supply (RHS)

2017 annual avg. (RHS)

2018 annual avg. (RHS)

Source: OPEC Secretariat.

Change

Change

2017

2017/16

2018

2018/17

OECD Americas

21.27

0.70

22.13

0.86

OECD Europe

3.80

-0.01

3.88

0.08

OECD Asia Pacific

0.41

-0.02

0.45

0.04

Total OECD

25.47

0.67

26.46

0.98

Other Asia

3.66

-0.04

3.62

-0.04

Latin America

5.25

0.15

5.37

0.12

Middle East

1.23

-0.05

1.18

-0.05

Africa

1.87

0.05

1.94

0.07

Total DCs

12.02

0.11

12.12

0.10

FSU

13.97

0.11

14.13

0.16

Other Europe

0.13

0.00

0.13

0.00

China

3.98

-0.12

3.81

-0.17

Non-OPEC production

55.56

0.76

56.63

1.07

Processing gains

2.21

0.01

2.23

0.03

Non-OPEC supply

57.77

0.78

58.87

1.10

Note: * 2017 and 2018 = Forecast.

Source: OPEC Secretariat.

Region