Table of Contents Table of Contents
Previous Page  49 / 111 Next Page
Information
Show Menu
Previous Page 49 / 111 Next Page
Page Background

World Oil Supply

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – August 2017

41

Graph 5 - 3: Non-OPEC quarterly oil supply

Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 is expected to grow by 1.10 mb/d over the current year to average

58.87 mb/d

, which is slightly less than the expected increase in global demand in 2018. A “bottom-up,”

field-by-field study and analysis of new projects indicates that non-OPEC liquids production growth will

continue to be a little stronger in the next year following the current upstream activities in the world,

particularly in North America.

Table 5 - 2: Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018*, mb/d

The quarterly oil supply forecast in 2017 and 2018 (

Graph 5 - 3

), indicates a subsequent yearly higher level

oil output during 2016-2018, due to higher investment which lead to a higher production and higher annual

growth in non-OPEC supply in 2017 and the next year. Nevertheless, the forecast for non-OPEC supply in

2018 is associated with a high level of uncertainty as well as possibility.

57.66

56.18

56.52

57.60

57.89

57.49

57.49

58.19

58.48

58.61

58.75

59.62

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

2016

2017 (Forecast)

2018 (Forecast)

mb/d

Source: OPEC Secretariat.

2017 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 2018 Growth

%

Americas

21.27 21.94 21.95 22.14 22.48 22.13

0.86 4.05

of which US

14.29 14.97 15.02 15.14 15.38 15.13

0.84 5.86

Europe

3.80 3.93 3.81 3.75 4.03 3.88

0.08 2.19

Asia Pacific

0.41 0.42 0.45 0.46 0.45 0.45

0.04 9.79

Total OECD

25.47 26.29 26.21 26.35 26.97 26.46

0.98 3.86

Other Asia

3.66 3.64 3.64 3.62 3.60 3.62

-0.04 -1.10

Latin America

5.25 5.37 5.35 5.36 5.41 5.37

0.12 2.27

Middle East

1.23 1.20 1.19 1.18 1.16 1.18

-0.05 -3.90

Africa

1.87 1.93 1.94 1.94 1.95 1.94

0.07 3.79

Total DCs

12.02 12.14 12.12 12.09 12.12 12.12

0.10 0.85

FSU

13.97 13.79 14.10 14.19 14.42 14.13

0.16 1.14

of which Russia

11.11 10.98 11.21 11.29 11.47 11.24

0.13 1.19

Other Europe

0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.13

0.00 -2.37

China

3.98 3.90 3.81 3.76 3.76 3.81

-0.17 -4.26

Total "Other regions"

18.07 17.82 18.04 18.07 18.30 18.06

-0.01 -0.07

Total non-OPEC

production

55.56 56.25 56.37 56.52 57.38 56.63

1.07 1.93

Processing gains

2.21 2.23 2.23 2.23 2.23 2.23

0.03 1.32

Total non-OPEC supply

57.77 58.48 58.61 58.75 59.62 58.87

1.10 1.91

Previous estimate

57.82 58.58 58.70 58.84 59.71 58.96

1.14 0.00

Revision

-0.05 -0.09 -0.09 -0.09 -0.09 -0.09

-0.04 1.91

Note: * 2018 = Forecast.

Source: OPEC Secretariat.

Change 2018/17