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World Oil Supply

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – August 2017

39

World Oil Supply

Non-OPEC oil supply growth forecast in 2017 was revised down by 28 tb/d from the previous MOMR to

0.78 mb/d to represent an average total non-OPEC supply of 57.77 mb/d. The main reason for this

downward revision was a lower assessment of oil supply in OECD America following the weak output in

2Q17, but this was partially offset by upward revisions of supply in Russia and China in 2Q17.

Non-OPEC oil supply in 2018 is projected to grow by 1.10 mb/d, to average 58.87 mb/d, following downward

revisions in the US and Canada. The US, Brazil, Canada, Russia, Kazakhstan, Congo and the UK are the

main drivers of growth, while Mexico, China, Colombia and Azerbaijan are expected to see declines. The

2018 forecast is subject to many uncertainties.

OPEC NGLs production in 2017 and 2018 is expected to grow by 0.17 mb/d and 0.18 mb/d to average

6.31 mb/d and 6.49 mb/d, respectively. In July, OPEC production increased by 173 tb/d to average

32.87 mb/d, according to secondary sources. As a result, preliminary data indicates that global oil supply

increased by 0.17 mb/d in July, to average 97.30 mb/d.

Non-OPEC supply in 2017 and 2018

Table 5 - 1: Non-OPEC oil supply in 2017*, mb/d

Non-OPEC oil supply is forecast to grow by 0.78 mb/d in 2017 to average 57.77 mb/d (

Table 5 - 1

)

,

which is revised down by 28 tb/d from the previous

MOMR

. It is estimated that OECD oil supply will increase

by 0.67 mb/d to average 25.47 mb/d, a downward revision of 68 tb/d in annual growth compared with the

July publication. This adjustment was made following weak output in the US and Canada in 2Q17 due to

2016 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 2017 Growth

%

Americas

20.57 21.10 20.90 21.38 21.68 21.27

0.70 3.38

of which US

13.60 13.81 14.12 14.46 14.76 14.29

0.70 5.11

Europe

3.80 3.94 3.80 3.58 3.87 3.80

-0.01 -0.19

Asia Pacific

0.42 0.39 0.39 0.44 0.41 0.41

-0.02 -3.80

Total OECD

24.80 25.43 25.09 25.39 25.97 25.47

0.67 2.71

Other Asia

3.71 3.72 3.62 3.67 3.65 3.66

-0.04 -1.14

Latin America

5.10 5.20 5.19 5.27 5.36 5.25

0.15 2.92

Middle East

1.28 1.24 1.24 1.22 1.22 1.23

-0.05 -3.90

Africa

1.82 1.83 1.85 1.89 1.91 1.87

0.05 2.78

Total DCs

11.91 11.98 11.90 12.04 12.13 12.02

0.11 0.91

FSU

13.86 14.13 14.14 13.80 13.80 13.97

0.11 0.76

of which Russia

11.08 11.25 11.23 10.98 10.98 11.11

0.03 0.23

Other Europe

0.13 0.12 0.12 0.13 0.13 0.13

0.00 -1.79

China

4.10 4.02 4.02 3.92 3.94 3.98

-0.12 -2.91

Total "Other regions"

18.09 18.27 18.29 17.85 17.88 18.07

-0.02 -0.09

Total non-OPEC

production

54.80 55.69 55.29 55.28 55.98 55.56

0.76 1.39

Processing gains

2.19 2.21 2.21 2.21 2.21 2.21

0.01 0.50

Total non-OPEC supply

56.99 57.89 57.49 57.49 58.19 57.77

0.78 1.36

Previous estimate

57.01 57.89 57.52 57.58 58.28 57.82

0.80 1.41

Revision

-0.02 0.01 -0.03 -0.09 -0.09 -0.05

-0.03 -0.05

Note: * 2017 = Forecast.

Source: OPEC Secretariat.

Change 2017/16