Table of Contents Table of Contents
Previous Page  43 / 111 Next Page
Information
Show Menu
Previous Page 43 / 111 Next Page
Page Background

World Oil Demand

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – August 2017

35

The overall forecast for Indian oil demand in 2017 and 2018 remains unchanged, compared to last month’s

projections. The expectations for strong economic growth and the large potential for oil demand in the

country are skewed to the upside. Some downside risks relate to a possible reduction in subsidies and fuel

substitution.

Indonesia

In

Indonesia

, increasing demand for road transportation fuels, notably gasoline and gas diesel oil, as well as

LPG in the residential sector, were partly offset by decreasing demand for residual fuel and jet kerosene. The

overall result is a 0.6% increase in oil demand y-o-y during May 2017. As Indonesian oil demand, particularly

transportation fuels and LPG is substantially connected to domestic retail prices policies, possible additional

reductions in subsidized diesel, gasoline and LPG may curb oil demand in 2017 and 2018.

In Malaysia, May 2017 oil demand witnessed an increase y-o-y, with the majority of petroleum product

categories seeing growth, notably jet kerosene, gas diesel oil and gasoline. This was partly offset by declines

in residual fuel oil and LPG requirements. Oil demand growth in May 2017 was strong for another month in

Hong Kong, with the bulk of additional volumes coming from gas diesel oil and residual fuel oil, mostly driven

by industrial activities and transportation.

Thailand

In

Thailand

, the latest available data imply slightly declining oil demand in May 2017 y-o-y; diesel, gasoline,

and LPG demand grew, but this is offset by declining naphtha and residual fuel oil requirements, largely due

to fuel substitution.

Other Asia

’s oil demand is expected to increase by 0.33 mb/d y-o-y in 2017. For 2018, oil demand is

forecasted to grow solidly by a further 0.34 mb/d.

Latin America

Graph 4 - 9: Latin America oil demand,

y-o-y change

Graph 4 - 10: Brazilian gasoline demand,

y-o-y change

Brazil

In

Brazil

, oil demand growth in June 2017 stayed out of negative territory y-o-y, for the second month in a

row. This provides further support to some positive indicators already seen in 1Q17. Gasoline demand grew

firmly and gas diesel oil demand increased marginally y-o-y; gains were partly offset by shrinking residual

fuel oil, jet kerosene and ethanol demand in the industrial and transportation sectors. Expectations for 2017

and 2018 Brazilian oil demand remain unchanged from last month, with expected oil demand growth linked

to the recovery of the country’s economy.

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

tb/d

tb/d

Historical range

Historical average

2016

2017

Sources: National, Joint Organisations Data Initiative and

OPEC Secretariat.

0

20

40

60

80

100

Jun 16

Jul 16

Aug 16

Sep 16

Oct 16

Nov 16

Dec 16

Jan 17

Feb 17

Mar 17

Apr 17

May 17

Jun 17

tb/d

Sources: Agencia Nacional do Petroleo, Gas e Biocombustiveis

of Brazil, Joint Organisations Data Initiative and

OPEC Secretariat.