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World Economy

26

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – August 2017

China’s

GDP growth

expectation was upgraded to 6.7% in 2017 from 6.5% in the last month and

expectations for 2018 have been kept unchanged at 6.3%.

OPEC Member Countries

The non-oil private sector in

Saudi Arabia

showed notable improvement in its business conditions in July by

highest rate in three months as suggested by Emirates NBD Saudi Arabia PMI. The index increased to 55.7

last month, up from 54.3 a month earlier. The index survey showed stronger growth in output and new orders

but with deceleration in for-export orders. The index average of 1H17 stood at 56.0, highlighting higher rate

of growth compared with the first six months of 2016. Inflation remained in the negative territory in 1H17,

posting minus 0.4% y-o-y in June which the same average of 1H17.

In

Nigeria

, the deceleration in GDP notably slowed from 1.6% y-o-y in 4Q16, to 0.6% in 1Q17, according to

National Bureau of Statistics. Inflation somewhat eased to 16.1% y-o-y in June, from 16.3% in the previous

month. In a positive note, the country’s private sector registered fastest pace of growth in two years in July

as suggested by the Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI. The index jumped to 54.8 in July, from 52.9 in June

because of fast pace of expansion in both output and new orders despite some decrease in for-export

orders.

In the

United Arab Emirates

, the GDP of Abu Dhabi registered growth of 1.8% y-o-y in 1Q17. Inflation in the

UAE reached 2.0% y-o-y in June, from 1.9% in May. The Emirates NBD UAE PMI increased to 56.0 in July,

from 55.8 in June, marking highest reading in three months. The survey showed strong growth in output and

new orders together with survey-record growth in inventories. However, for-export orders witnessed acute

drop in July, by fastest pace in series history.

Graph 3 - 29: PMIs of Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and the UAE

Other Asia

In

Indonesia

, the trade surplus widened from $1.08 billion in June 2016 to $1.63 billion in June 2017,

highlighting the largest trade surplus since late 2011 Exports decreased more than 11.8% y-o-y in June due

to the drop in the sales of non-oil and gas products. Indonesia’s imports fell about 17.2% y-o-y in June

because of the fall in oil and gas purchases. Consumer price inflation posted 3.9% y-o-y increase in July,

down from the previous month and lowest in four months. The bank of Indonesia kept its benchmark interest

rate unchanged in July at 4.75%.

In

the Philippines

, GDP grew by 6.4% y-o-y in 1Q17, compared to 6.9% growth in the same period of 2016.

Private consumption showed slower growth of 5.7% y-o-y in 1Q17, its lowest growth since 4Q14. On the

other hand, growth in government consumption and GFCF notably slowed in 1Q17 to 0.2% and 11.8% y-o-y,

respectively. The Philippines trade deficit rose from $2.24 in May 2016 to $2.75 billion in May 2017 as

imports went up by more than 16% y-o-y in May, while exports increased by 13.7% y-o-y.

54.8

55.7

56.0

45

50

55

60

Jul 15

Aug 15

Sep 15

Oct 15

Nov 15

Dec 15

Jan 16

Feb 16

Mar 16

Apr 16

May 16

Jun 16

Jul 16

Aug 16

Sep 16

Oct 16

Nov 16

Dec 16

Jan 17

Feb 17

Mar 17

Apr 17

May 17

Jun 17

Jul 17

Index

Nigeria

Saudi Arabia

UAE

Sources: Emirates NBD, IHS Markit, Stanbic IBTC Bank and Haver Analytics.