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World Economy

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – August 2017

11

World Economy

The latest economic indicators have confirmed a continuation of the improving dynamic in the global

economy. In the OECD, strengthening growth in the US, stable quarterly growth in the Euro-zone and

improving economic activity in Japan are all supportive for the global economy. In the non-OECD

economies, China is showing better-than-expected growth, India is forecast to keep a high growth level, and

Brazil and Russia are recovering from their two-year recession. Global economic growth is forecast at 3.4%

for 2017 and 2018, considerably higher than last year’s growth of 3.0%.

As the economic development in the OECD group of countries is improving, the OECD’s GDP growth in

2017 and 2018 is forecast at 2.0%, up from 1.7% in 2016. Also, the major emerging economies are holding

up well with China now forecast to grow at 6.7% in 2017 and 6.3% in 2018. India is expected to grow by

7.0% in 2017 and rebound to 7.5% in 2018, supported by ongoing structural reforms. Russia and Brazil will

also continue their recovery and are forecast to grow by 1.2% and 0.5% in 2017 and by 1.4% and 1.5% in

2018, respectively, though this also depends on the development of commodity prices and political

developments, as well as the presidential elections in both countries in the coming year.

With the ongoing growth momentum and its expected continuation in 2H17, there is still some room to the

upside for currently anticipated global growth levels. At the same time, challenges remain mainly related to

global political developments and upcoming monetary policy decisions, particularly the US and the

Euro-zone. Seemingly high valuations in equity and bond markets, in combination with low volatility, pose

one risk as well, at a time when central banks have become more willing to reduce monetary stimulus

measures. Also, debt levels remain high in some key economies an issue that will probably require further

attention if interest rates continue to rise gradually, particularly in the US. Finally, sustained stability in

commodity prices, particularly oil prices, is viewed as necessary for ongoing improvements in global

economic growth.

Table 3 - 1: Economic growth rate and revision, 2017-2018*, %

OECD

OECD Americas

US

After a relatively low and downwardly revised 1Q17 GDP growth of only 1.2% q-o-q at a seasonally adjusted

annualised rate (SAAR), the growth dynamic in 2Q17 recovered and GDP grew by 2.6% q-o-q SAAR.

Importantly, consumption was the main driver, expanding by 2.8% q-o-q SAAR. As in the 1Q17, exports

were also performing well, growing by 4.1% q-o-q SAAR, after 7.3% q-o-q SAAR in the 1Q17, despite a

relatively strong US dollar. Moreover, investments continued to grow with a considerable share coming from

the energy sector.

World OECD US Japan

Euro-

zone UK China India Brazil Russia

2017

3.4 2.0 2.1 1.4 2.0 1.5 6.7 7.0 0.5 1.2

Change from previous month

0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

2018

3.4 2.0 2.2 1.1 1.8 1.4 6.3 7.5 1.5 1.4

Change from previous month

0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

Note: * 2017 and 2018 = Forecast.

Source: OPEC Secretariat.