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10

Annual Report 2016

*2016 data are preliminary estimates.

Note

Figures are partly estimated. Non-OPEC DCs do not include China, the former Soviet Union and Russia, in line with ECB country groupings.

Sources

IMF, International Financial Statistics; IMF, World Economic Outlook; EIU country reports; World Bank Development Indicators; OPEC

Annual Statistical Bulletin; OPEC database; OPEC Secretariat estimates.

Table 3

Comparison: OPEC and non-OPEC developing countries

2015

2016*

OPEC

Non-OPEC

OPEC

Non-OPEC

Real GDP growth rate

(%)

1.3

3.2

1.4

3.2

Petroleum export value

($ bn)

515.6

250.1

443.1

189.1

Value of non-petroleum exports

($ bn)

477.6

2,895.3

484.8

2,890.0

Oil exports as percentage of total exports

(%)

51.9

8.0

47.7

6.1

Value of imports

($ bn)

830.4

3,526.7

804.9

3,396.3

Current account balance

($ bn)

–82.2

–78.8

–102.5

–3.7

Crude oil production

(mb/d)

31.5

10.1

32.5

10.0

Reserves, excluding gold

($ bn)

1,216.4

2,831.0

1,091.4

2,935.4

economic deceleration in 1Q15. Household con-

sumption showed a slower decline, by 3.1% y-o-y in

3Q16, compared with 5.2% in the previous quarter.

Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) also decreased

by a notably slower pace, 0.5% y-o-y in 3Q16, com-

pared to 4.3% in 2Q16. Exports increased nearly 7%

y-o-y in 3Q16 from largely unchanged export levels in

the previous quarter. Imports continued slowing for

12 consecutive quarters, though by a lesser rate of

3.0% y-o-y from 6.7% in 2Q16. The downward infla-

tionary trend continued in December, with inflation

posting 5.4%, its slowest rate of increase since June

2012. Following a 2.7% depreciation in November,

the ruble appreciated by 3.4%m-o-m in December. At

the same time, the benchmark interest rate was kept

unchanged at 10.0% by the central bank. Robust per-

formance in the private sector, as well as in services

and manufacturing at the end of 2016 is expected to

have positively influenced GDP growth in 4Q16.

India’s GDP growth for 2016 is likely to expand

by 7.5%, despite a strong negative shock to GDP

growth late in 2016 due to demonetisation in Novem-

ber. GDP growth in 2015 also stood at 7.5%. Gross

fixed investment fell for three consecutive quarters

from January–September 2016, weighing not just

on economic growth but also on employment pros-

pects for India’s rapidly growing workforce. However,

monetary easing by the Reserve Bank of India, which