Annual Statistical Bulletin 2006

Presentation by Mr. Fuad Al-Zayer, Head, Data Services Dept., to the Press Conference launching the "Annual Statistical Bulletin 2006", at the OPEC Secretariat in Vienna, Austria, 13 September 2007

[See Slides 1-3]

[Slide 4]
OPEC first published its Annual Statistical Bulletin in 1965. At the time, the bulletin was intended only for the use of staff at the Secretariat and in MCs. Several years later, it became available for public distribution. Through the years the content and layout were also improved. Since 1994, a digital copy was included in the bulletin, first as a floppy diskette, and now as a CD-ROMs. Also since the year 2000 it is available in internet and intranet.

[Slide 5] read slide

[Slide 6]
Data for OPEC Member Countries are based on official sources such as government ministries and national oil companies. OPEC Secretariat maintains direct data communication, both on monthly basis and through the dispatch of its Annual Questionnaire. We also request for data on various topics of research through specially designed questionnaires.

I would like to emphasize here that continuous improvement on data quality takes place using various means, which include regular meetings of the Working Party on Flow of Statistics where representatives of MCs responsible for data submission discuss areas of concern with members of DSD. In addition regular visits by the Secretariat to Member Countries are organized through which the statisticians get a chance to know their counterparts.

[Slide 7]
As I mentioned earlier, the tables in ASB are grouped into 5 sections. First section includes the summary tables about the various socio-economic as well as oil industry data with an emphasis on OPEC MCs. The data in this section go back as far as to 1986 in print and 1960 in the electronic version. Second section presents oil and gas data, detailing upstream and downstream activities, with emphasis not only on OPEC but also leading countries within each category.

Section 3 contains data on developments in transportation capacities and freight rates, while Sections 4 offers tables on the prices of crude and petroleum products. Finally Section 5 presents information on the evolution of financial and operational indicators related to the activities of the major oil companies.

[Slide 8]
Let me move on to the second part of my presentation by showing some graphs on selected topics contained in the ASB. (read slide)

[Slide 9]
This slide shows the evolution of OPEC’s oil export revenues. Although the nominal value of 2006 is considerably above the high values achieved in the early 1980s, in real terms, it is almost at the same level as during those years.

[Slide 10] (see slide)

[Slide 11]
Let me highlight some of the data on reserves. (read slide)

[Slide 12]
The share of OPEC Member Countries in World's proven crude oil reserves is 77%. The major part of it lies in OPEC Middle East, which accounts for 61% of Total World Reserves.

[Slide 13]
In addition to its high share in oil reserves, OPEC Member countries also hold a high share, namely 49%, of total World gas reserves. Two Member Countries namely, Iran and Qatar, account for the biggest share.

[Slide 14]
This graph indicates the trend in the upstream activities as measured by the number of drilling rigs in the Non-OPEC and in OPEC Member countries. It clearly shows a significant rise in the OPEC drilling activity since 2004. It shows OPEC’s commitment to create a balanced market situation, even though this period was accompanied with a very steep rise in the costs of drilling rigs.

[Slide 15]
Let me now proceed to crude oil production. (read slide)

[Slide 16]
Although they are the most important crude oil producers, only in the mid-70s OPEC MCs accounted for more than half of world production. The share went down to its lowest level in mid-80s, but has then started to increase again and currently stands at 44.5%.

[Slide 17]
Total world crude oil production has increased by 4.7 mb/d during the last three years. Over 91% of the additional production needed to meet the increasing demand has come from OPEC during this period. Besides the FSU, and a few other countries like Brazil, Ecuador and China contributed to the increase, while at the same time in the US and the North Sea production fell by over 1.6 mb/d.

I could also add here that our Member Countries have been advancing their production capacity expansion plan. Within the next 5 years, we will have the capacity to supply additional 4-5 mbpd of crude oil, with another 1.5 mbd of NGL. This should be more than adequate, and would leave reasonable spare capacity, at the projected demand growth over the coming 5 years.

[Slide 18]
How about the downstream activities? (read slide)

[Slide 19]
On refinery sectors, ASB data show that the growth of refinery capacity for the last 20 years has taken place only in Asia and OPEC MCs, while other major markets specially USA have remained relatively stagnant.

[Slide 20]
This graph is indicative of investment activities of the major international oil companies, the dominant players in North America and Europe. As ASB2006 shows, although petroleum product margins have been growing rapidly in recent years, oil company investments have been concentrated mostly in the upstream sector.

Companies considered include: Shell, BP, ExxonMobil, Total, Chevron.

[Slide 21]
Let me now move on to our data on consumption. (read slide)

[Slide 22]
Our ASB2006, noted that world refined product consumption has been constantly increasing during the last 20 years. Biggest consumers remain North America and Europe, while developing countries, especially China and India have grown significantly and became more important oil consumers.

[Slide 23]
Finally a last word to exports. (read slide)

[Slide 24]
This higher rate of crude imports from OPEC MCs can mainly be attributed to rising demand in China and India where energy consumption is growing rapidly.

Also Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, who together represent a significant economic and trading center, are strongly dependent on oil imports.

And one should not forget the smaller countries in the region which are, from an energy point of view, in an upswing phase.

[Slide 25]
Finally a last word to exports. (read slide)

[Slide 26]
Ladies and Gentlemen, as you see, the ASB, not only provides a comprehensive source of data on oil and gas industry, but it also illustrates the vital role of OPEC in that industry. I am sure that you will even find more interesting information as you go through the Bulletin.

In the meantime, OPEC Secretariat intends to further improve the ASB. With the support of our Member Countries, we will maintain the reputation of our Annual Statistical Bulletin as a valuable source of data.

ASB 2006 Presentation

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