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Interactive ASB 2008The period 2004-2008, marked by rising oil prices, refining tightness and high margins, brought forward an increasing number of refining projects worldwide. However, following the onset of the financial crisis in September 2008, several factors have been acting to delay, postpone or even cancel some projects, including difficulties in arranging for debt and equity financing, expectations of further falls in construction costs and the prospect of sharply reduced oil demand across almost all world regions. Understandably, downstream investments in OPEC Member Countries are also affected by these developments.
Despite large uncertainties over future demand for refined products and the resulting requirements for refining capacity expansions, OPEC Member Countries continue with the implementation of several major refining projects aimed at supporting market stability. However, these efforts will only be successful if they are complemented by adequate downstream investments by international oil companies and the consumer countries.
In concrete terms, recent Secretariat estimates show that OPEC Member Countries will expand their refining capacity by more than 2 mb/d by 2015. This includes around 1.5 mb/d of additional distillation capacity and another 0.6 mb/d capacity in condensate plants within the national borders, thus passing 10 mb/d of downstream capacity by 2015. Moreover, substantial investments are on the way as part of equity shares in refineries outside national borders.
However, capacity additions are far from being equally distributed over time, as presented on a more detailed graph.
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